Israel entered its second week with news that the IDF had carried out more airstrikes in Iran, eliminating several key Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. In addition, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei is apparently concerned that he is in the crosshairs of the campaign.
While Iran’s missile fire on Israel has been reduced, there is no clear indication that Tehran is ready to throw in the towel. This means that a campaign that began on June 13 and was expected to take weeks might now extend even longer.
Israel is being told that this campaign could be prolonged. That was the messaging of IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir on Friday. It should prepare for a “prolonged” campaign to “eliminate a threat of this magnitude” after the government initially said it would last a week or two.
Meanwhile, international media outlets are also changing their tune on what might come next. CNN noted in a headline on Saturday that “Trump’s two-week delay on Iran strike decision leaves Israel in limbo.” NBC portrays the conflict as “dragging on” as “diplomacy falters.”
Israel's first days of war: An unprecedented success
There is no doubt that Israel’s first several days of war with Iran represented an unprecedented success. Tehran was caught by surprise. Iran’s air defenses proved inadequate, and Israel quickly achieved air superiority over the Islamic Republic’s skies.
Iran has tried to lash out with ballistic missiles. Israel has destroyed many of its launchers, perhaps more than half of them. It has also targeted the missiles themselves and facilities producing them. This means that estimates that Iran could make dozens of missiles a month or that its stockpile would grow into the thousands in coming years, with the ability to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses, are less of a concern. However, reports do say that Israel could have a shortage of interceptors to confront the missile threat.
ISRAEL WAS up against several unfavorable timelines just before it launched the war. It didn’t want Iran to secure a deal that enabled it to enrich uranium to nuclear-weapon levels and continue the path to making one. And it didn’t want the missile program to continue to grow.
On the other hand, Israel had favorable elements in its corner. Iran was weaker than in the past in many ways. Its proxy militias were decimated in Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza. But Iran is a large country, and it has not indicated it will give up. Tehran has fought long wars in the past, such as against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s.
Some believe Iran’s regime is internally weak and that dissidents could overthrow the regime. However, the opposition groups don’t all get along.
In essence, the groups that are Persian nationalists or monarchists accuse the minorities in Iran of being “separatist” and are often openly racist against groups such as Kurds, Baloch, Azeris, and Arabs. It’s hard to have a unified opposition when groups don’t get along and when the regime can play them off against each other. Also, it’s easier for Iran to mobilize forces at home to fight dissidents than it is to build more missiles and air defenses.
Is Iran's regime internally weak?
THERE ARE several variables at play at the moment. One is the regime’s internal security. Another issue is whether it has more missiles or more types of missiles it has not revealed that could harm Israel. In addition, there are questions about whether the regime might secure a deal with Western countries that would lead to pressure on Israel to stop the bombing.
The biggest variable is whether the US will enter the war. President Donald Trump would likely want a clear goal and path to victory. He showed with the Houthis that he doesn’t like open-ended bombing campaigns.
Trump is impressed with Israel’s initial success. However, he doesn’t want to send troops to fight in Iran. He may wonder whether precision bombing and air power are enough to defeat the Islamic Republic. The president is watching Israel’s campaign. If the campaign shows too much mission creep, it will lead to questions.
For instance, Israel wanted to stop the nuclear program and set back the missile program. Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz has also talked about eliminating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Mixed messaging about whether Iranian residents of Tehran will “pay the price” in this war has led to concerns that it could creep into what the more than 600-day-long Gaza war has become.
Israel has not shown in its recent wars that it can get to the end zone of these conflicts. In Gaza, the IDF has multiple divisions and can’t seem to defeat Hamas. In Lebanon, Hezbollah did give in to a ceasefire deal, and Israel has freedom of action there. Israel continues to carry out airstrikes. However, this seems open ended.
IRAN IS a large country. The nuclear program has been harmed, with strikes on Natanz, Isfahan, and Arak. “Israel pointed to just that concern when it launched airstrikes Thursday on the reactor, following its attacks on other Iranian nuclear sites, including the Natanz enrichment facility, centrifuge workshops near Tehran, and laboratories in Isfahan.
Iran acknowledged the strikes, saying at least two projectiles slammed into the compound at Arak, without giving any specifics about damage, the AP noted.
The big question is whether Israel’s air campaign can achieve all its goals. Can the nuclear program be destroyed together with the missile threat along with more IRGC members and others?
Targets in Iran have included old helicopters and old airplanes that don’t even fly. These seem either symbolic, or the result of a target bank that is showing diminishing returns. Why waste munitions on 50-year-old Iranian aircraft that don’t fly?
Israel appears to be able to send warplanes into Iran’s airspace every day. The IDF is saying each day that it hits dozens of targets. For instance, on Friday, the military said, “Some 15 IAF fighter jets completed a series of strikes on missile launch sites in western Iran.”
Iran has reduced the volume of missiles it is firing. Israel has appeared to prevent most of its mortal enemy’s drone threats. It appears that 99% of the drones have been intercepted or failed to reach Israel. This is good news. However, no air defense system is perfect and the drones are getting more dangerous. Iran may be able to keep building them because they are easy to make.
The big question is whether this campaign will now become another multi-month war or even a long war like in Gaza.
Although Israel has shown resilience, the Iran war may not be as easy as it initially seemed. The US could possibly pressure Iran into a deal that might be optimal. However, it will mean that Israel has started a war and then relied on the US to end it. That may present problems in the future.