The transfer of Islamic State detainees from Syria to Iraq is a sign that Washington doesn’t truly trust the Sharaa regime, experts told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday after 5,700 suspected Islamic State prisoners were transferred by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) over the weekend.
Prof. Eytan Gilboa, expert on the US at Bar-Ilan and Reichman Universities, and Fellow at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, said Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has not yet demonstrated he can or desires to maintain regional calm by holding the prisoners.
Devorah Margolin, a Blumenstein-Rosenbloom Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, also told the Post, “The coalition’s decision to transfer the ISIS-affiliated detainees from Syria to Iraq highlights the chaos and the insecurity on the ground in northeast Syria at the moment, and the desire to ensure the security of the situation doesn’t escalate further.
“While the US administration has been very clear that they wanted Damascus to take over both fighting the Islamic State and the detainee issue, these are two very different portfolios,” Margolin explained. “The detainee issue is enormously complicated and requires intensive time, training, and resources. The current handling of the al-Hol detention camp highlights that while Damascus might be able to partner on certain issues, they are not equipped at this time to handle others.”
Sharaa, who is also known by the name Abu Mohammad al-Julani, was formerly wanted by the United States for his role in al-Qaeda and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. While President Donald Trump has embraced him since the fall of the Assad regime last year, critics have warned that the Islamist may not be an appropriate ally for the US in the region.
“There are some concerns about Ahmed al-Sharaa, whether or not he left his history as a terrorist of the Qaeda and ISIS [behind],” Gilboa noted, adding that his failure to stop members of the Syrian Arab Army from committing atrocities against Kurds, Druze, and Alawites would suggest the caution is well-justified.
ISIS fighters escape after Syrian forces seized control of al-Shaddadi prison
Dozens of alleged Islamic State fighters escaped after Syrian forces seized control of al-Shaddadi prison. While authorities claimed 81 of the apparent 120 escapees were quickly recaptured, the incident may have threatened trust in Damascus.
Baghdad fought hard to declare victory over ISIS in 2017, taking back approximately 40% of the land formerly controlled by the terror group. As Washington has withdrawn its military from the country, Gilboa warned that the country may be anxious to see the number of prisoners it’s responsible for decline.
Reflecting on Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein’s recent admission to Reuters that discussions were being held to see “some Arab and Muslim countries” take back their citizens, Gilboa shared that Baghdad was likely pushing for this over concern that the prisoners could become a “national security threat.” He noted that Europe was unlikely to accept the prisoners, but countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia may be more amenable.
Hussein to Reuters that Baghdad would need financial assistance to deal with the influx of prisoners, who were transferred after a rapid offensive by Syrian regime forces in northeast Syria against Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. The formerly US-backed SDF had been responsible for guarding many of the facilities holding prisoners.
“We also started talking to some countries so that they can supply us with financial support, because if those thousands of terrorists stay in Iraq for a long time, I mean, security-wise, it’s very dangerous, so we need support from various countries,” Hussein said in the interview. “We have already started talking to various countries so that in the near future, they will take their own citizens back, because at the end, they are from other countries.”
Hussein admitted that the country was “really worried” over the spike in ISIS activity along the border. Iraqi spy chief Hamid al-Shatri warned last month that ISIS has been regaining its numbers in the region, according to The Washington Post, with the numbers swelling in neighboring Syria to around 10,000.
The shift in “American military presence and priorities in the region” does not come without risk for Israel, Gilboa warned.
“Throughout the years, those ISIS terrorists were kept by the Kurds – this was the best situation for Israel. Now that you have a combination of an American withdrawal as well as the transfer of those terrorists to Iraq, it represents a sort of threat to Israel in Iraq,” he explained. “Iraq is under enormous pressure to accommodate Iranian requests, and Iran wants to regain power in Iraq where it could then challenge Ahmed al-Sharaa.”
While ISIS is considered an enemy of Iran, Gilboa said recent evidence suggests that Tehran is willing to work with the terrorist group against its enemies. “I can see there’s very little Israel can do about it, because of the distances, because of priorities, but this is something that will have to be taken into consideration,” he continued.
Beyond risks that Iraq and ISIS may soon play into a larger Iranian campaign against Syria, human rights groups have expressed concern that the prisoners transferred will receive the same sham trials seen in earlier years.
Sarah Sanbar, a researcher with the New York-based Human Rights Watch organization, told CBS News that Baghdad’s earlier prosecution against suspected ISIS members involved “Confessions obtained under torture, people being tortured in detention centers, trials that lasted 10 minutes without a lawyer present, where they were sentenced to death, on the basis of an anonymous informant and no corroborating evidence.”
“The detainee issue has always raised legal questions,” Margolin explained. “The indefinite detention of citizens from around the world by a non-State actor in a disputed territory was never sustainable. The decision to move detainees to Iraq also raises a lot of legal questions, specifically the use of the death penalty, and also moving Syrian citizens from Syria to Iraq. It also continues to raise questions about countries around the world shirking their legal responsibility to be accountable for their own citizens.”