BySETH J. FRANTZMAN
Updated:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of launching an armed drone that flew into Israeli airspace in the midst of the war in Gaza. In a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Netanyahu brought a piece of the drone and said that “Iran sent an armed UAV into Israel from Iraq or Syria.” It was intercepted near the border with Jordan in an area near where another armed drone flown from Syria was shot down in February 2018.

The fact that Iraq was mentioned as a possible place the drone came from speaks to a larger Iranian threat that links Iraq and Syria. This threat has been known for years but may be growing.  

Netanyahu used the drone as an example of Iran’s supplying of infrastructure to terrorist groups. Details about the drone being shot down are still relatively scarce. It was shot down on May 18 and pieces of it fell in an area near Beit Shean. Iranian media has not concentrated on the drone story. A short piece in Sputnik News in Arabic mentioned it. Al-Mayadeen, which is generally supportive of Iran and Hezbollah, also briefly mentioned the drone incident.

The drone story is part of a wider issue. Hamas has published photos they claim were taken by one of their surveillance drones over Israel and Hamas has used a new drone based on the Iranian Ababil drone.

Now let’s look at Iraq’s role. In August 2018, Reuters revealed that Iran was moving ballistic missiles to Iraq. This was based on western intelligence sources, they said. In December 2019, the US said that Iran was again moving missiles to Iraq. It appears that Iran had Kataib Hezbollah, a part of the pro-Iranian Hashd al-Shaabi group of militias in Iraq, use a drone to attack a Saudi Arabia pipeline in May 2019. More threats emerged from Iraq on Saudi Arabia in February 2021 when a drone flying from Iraq attacked a royal palace.

Kataib Hezbollah was previously run by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis until he was killed by the US in January 2020 alongside Qasem Soleimani. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy says that this group is pioneering sophisticated drone use in Iraq. Michael Knights and Crispin smith wrote on May 14 that “Iraqi militias are now fielding a twelve-foot wingspan drone similar to the Sammad-1, an Iranian-designed aircraft with a range of 500 km, used by both the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah.”  

DRONES WERE used against US forces in Erbil in the Kurdistan region in mid-April 2021 and against al-Asad base west of Baghdad on May 8. Are the photos of the drone wreckage in Erbil appears to be the same grey of the drone that was downed in northeast Israel. This points to the Iranian origin of the drones. However, the reference to Iraq as a potential location from where the drone was flown or came from also hints at Iraqi militia participation.  
Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are called the Hashd al-Shaabi or PMU. These include groups like Qais Khazali’a Asaib Ahl al Haq. He came to Lebanon in 2017 to threaten Israel and say he would work alongside Hezbollah. Muhandis and Kataib Hezbollah were part of the IRGC Quds Force network across the Middle East aiding Iran and Hezbollah. Other militias in Iraq are close to the IRGC and Iran. After the war between Israel and Hamas broke out on May 10 there were attempts by pro-Iran groups in Iraq to organize fighters to fight Israel. On May 16 reports said Kataib Hezbollah had organized some volunteers.

Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayed al Shuhada reputedly also wanted to go fight Israel from Iraq. A deputy from Nujaba said on May 17 that the group was ready to go and in Iraq protesters were launch condemning Israel and the US. Reports indicated that Kataib Hezbollah was in touch with Palestinian Islamic Jihad. At the same time Esmail Ghaani of the Quds Force had written a letter to Hamas commander Mohammed Deif in Gaza. Ghaani spoke with Haniyeh on May 15.  
 
 

THE QUESTION is whether the drone that entered Israeli airspace on May 18 was flown from Syria or Iraq. What is the Iraq connection. Iran flew a drone from Syria in February 2018 from T-4 base. A Hezbollah drone team of several Hezbollah operatives tried and failed to launch drones into Israel in August 2018. Israel carried out an airstrike against them. Israel has downed multiple drones from Lebanon over the past year. In January and April. The April drone belonged to Hezbollah, Israel’s IDF said.

If Iraqi-based militias are preparing to fight Israel, hosting Iranian ballistic missiles and potentially using drones against Israel this marks a serious escalation. Israel has operated to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria. In July and August 2019 pro-Iranian groups in Iraq accused Israel of several airstrikes in Iraq. US officials in August 2019 appeared to confirm those airstrikes in quotes published in VOA in the US.

It is known Kataib Hezbollah used a headquarters in Albukamal up until June 2018 when it was hit with an airstrike. The US has also carried out airstrikes in Syria against Iraqi militias that operate there. This illustrates the network of Iraqi militias that are linked to Iran that operate in Syria and use the border are to aid Iran in its “road to the sea,” a network of Iranian nodes that are used to move weapons to Hezbollah and are active in Iraq and Syria among pro-Iranian groups. These now include the trafficking of drone technology, much as Iran has helped the Houthis in Yemen develop drones to attack Saudi Arabia.  

The distance from Iraq’s Al-Qaim or areas in Anbar province where drones could be flown from is at the extreme end of the range of these types of drones, around 600km. That would mean any drone flown from Iraq would either represent the distance of the threat that can be achieved or that it was flown from Syria. Netanyahu said that it came from Iraq or Syria. The mentioning of Iraq appears to indicate that Iraq is of importance in this new threat equation.