On the evening of January 29, 1991, three Iraqi divisions left their trenches in Kuwait and began a slow assault on the Saudi Arabian town of Khafji. The Iraqi units ran into resistance, and many of them had been degraded over days of airstrikes by the US-led Coalition that was backing Saudi Arabia and was preparing to liberate Kuwait, which it would do on February 24.
In some ways, Iran’s attacks on many Gulf countries amid the US and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic echo that Iraqi offensive.
The Battle of Khafji was Baghdad’s attempt to show that, even under massive bombardment by the US Air Force and other allies, it could still launch an offensive. The Iraqi Army had stood up well during a decade of war with Iran in the 1980s. However, its Soviet armed divisions, consisting of tanks and infantry, were no match for the coalition. Some 60,000 Iraqi soldiers participated in the offensive. After three days of battle, it was all over for them.
Iraq’s attack on Saudi Arabia followed Baghdad’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, which had led the US to assemble a huge coalition to defend Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Then, the US and the other forces pushed Iraq out of Kuwait. America’s close alliance with many Gulf states has origins in that fight. Much was learned during that war, and it brought the US closer to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and other Gulf states.
Today, Iran is the one attacking these Gulf countries. Tehran is waging part of its war with the US and Israel by striking at Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries in the Gulf. Dozens of projectiles have been launched at these countries, including missiles and drones. Although the Islamic Republic maintains a pretense that it is attacking US forces, videos show Iranian drones and other munitions striking apartment buildings, a hotel, and airports.
In other instances, the Iranians have struck at military targets. However, it seems that Tehran has a two-pronged approach. It wants to strike at US bases, but it also wants to drive up the “price” for these Gulf countries hosting US forces.
Iran’s current behavior and Iraq’s actions in 1991 are similar. Iraq lashed out not only at Saudi Arabia but also fired Scud missiles at Israel. This accelerated Jerusalem’s investment in air defenses, which have helped the Jewish state stay safer during the recent conflict with Iran. The Arrow missile defense system has its origins in needing to defend against the Scud threat. As such, Iran’s actions today are not only similar but also linked to Iraq’s actions in 1991.
Iran's attack on Gulf States brings them closer together
So far, Iran has exacted a price. Flights have been canceled in the Gulf. Commerce is the key feature of many of these countries, and without flights, it is difficult for them to do business, and their large expat populations will suffer. On the other hand, the attacks will bring these countries closer together and with the US. Many of these countries operate air defenses acquired from the US. In addition, the UAE and Bahrain have normalized ties with Israel, which means they will benefit from Israeli expertise as well.
Tehran has lashed out, but it could end up causing the opposite effect that it wanted. The Islamic Republic has long caused havoc in the Gulf. In 1983, Iran was linked to embassy bombings carried out in Kuwait, and it has terrorized shipping in the Gulf for years, using threats against shipping to maintain its influence.
Back in 2019, the Islamic Republic even mined several tankers, causing havoc off the coast of the UAE, and it has also harassed naval vessels in the Gulf, even kidnapping crew. It has also launched drone attacks on ships in the past, and it has encouraged its proxies – the Houthis in Yemen and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq – to launch attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis have also targeted the UAE in the past, so the Gulf countries know the threat they are dealing with.
Dr. Anwar Gargash, an advisor to the president of the UAE, posted on social media that “Iranian aggression against the Gulf states has misdirected its target and isolated Iran at its critical moment. Your war is not with your neighbors, and with this escalation you confirm the narrative of those who see Iran as the main source of danger to the region and that its missile program is a permanent source of instability.”
He added, “Return to your senses, to your surroundings, and deal with your neighbors rationally,” Al-Ain News noted. In a subsequent interview, he said that the UAE will not sit quietly in the face of the attacks.
Arab News noted, “Loud blasts were heard in Dubai and [the] Qatari capital, Doha, for a second day on Sunday, and Oman was hit for the first time as retaliatory strikes on neighboring Gulf states in [response] to US and Israeli strikes on the Islamic Republic widened.”
It added, “Two people were injured in Dubai after shrapnel from drones fell over two houses when they were intercepted, a Dubai media office statement said. Dubai’s international airport, its landmark Burj Al Arab hotel, and [the] man-made Palm Jumeirah Island all suffered damage.”