Israel is confident that not only is regime change in Iran possible, but also that the US will stay in the fight until it happens, senior Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
This is contrary to claims made by American officials who spoke with Reuters and expressed skepticism about the possibility of regime change.
“Trump intends to go all the way with this move,” one senior official told the Post. “He has already marked the target. He wants to replace the regime, and he has no intention of taking his foot off the gas.”
In recent days, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump have said that the objective of the operation is to “create the conditions for the Iranian people to replace the regime.”
This has led some to speculate that the American president may order an end to the operation within days, claiming that this condition has been met.
However, the senior official added, contrary to assessments suggesting these speculations, he believes Trump will not stop until the replacement of leadership in Iran actually occurs.
Another senior official said that the significant and indiscriminate missile fire directed at Gulf states has led those countries to conclude that regime change in Tehran is necessary.
Trump said on Sunday night that he has three individuals in mind whom he views as possible leaders of Iran in the post-war period, but he did not disclose their names.
Some form of change within Iranian regime will have to occur
Dr. Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), estimates that the more plausible scenario at this stage is not regime change but rather a change within the current leadership.
“At the moment, the only scenario, even if it would be difficult to implement, is some form of change within the existing regime and the rise of more pragmatic leadership. Even that is not simple right now, because the atmosphere at the top of the political system is highly militant,” he said.
According to Dr. Zimmt, full regime change remains difficult to envision at this stage.
“The disappearance of Khamenei could certainly create, within the existing elite and amid internal power struggles, a different kind of regime. Larijani, who effectively holds significant power in Iran, could be pragmatic.
“It was no coincidence that his presidential candidacy was disqualified a few years ago; he is a ‘light conservative.’
But as long as the Revolutionary Guards remain dominant, no leadership will be able to bring about significant change in Iran.”
Regarding the question as to why Iranians are not taking to the streets, Zimmt told the Post that he does not know any reasonable person who would go out to protest while countless missiles are falling nearby.
“And even if someone overcomes the fear, what would be the point of going out now? The regime’s repressive capacity still exists.
“The working assumption is that the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards are still capable of effectively suppressing demonstrations. It will take a long time before Iranian citizens feel secure enough to take to the streets.”
Following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, many senior US officials remain skeptical that the US and Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic will lead to regime change in the near term.
Before and after the start of the attack, US officials, including Trump, had suggested that toppling the nation’s repressive governing system was one of several US goals, in addition to crippling Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
“I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment ... and take back your country,” Trump said on Sunday in a video posted on Truth Social.
But three officials familiar with US intelligence said there is serious skepticism that Iran’s battered opposition can topple the theocratic, authoritarian governing system that has been in place since 1979.
No officials consulted by Reuters, however, completely ruled out the possibility of the fall of Iran’s government, which currently is buffeted by key personnel losses from ongoing US and Israeli air strikes and is deeply unpopular following a January round of extraordinarily violent repression.
But it is far from likely or even probable in the near term, they said.
Reuters reported earlier that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the Iran attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hard-line clerics, two sources said.
One US official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said IRGC officials are unlikely to voluntarily capitulate, in part because they have benefited from a vast patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.
The CIA assessments followed at least one report from a separate US intelligence agency, which noted there had been no IRGC defections during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.
Such defections would likely be a precondition of any successful revolution, according to three additional sources who requested that the specific intelligence agency not be named.
All the sources who spoke with Reuters for this article requested anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments.
Trump himself said on Sunday that he planned to reopen communications with Iran, suggesting Washington does not see the government going anywhere, at least in the immediate term.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while the CIA declined to comment.
Reuters contributed to this report.