One of the most senior and important remaining figures in Iran, National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, was targeted by Israel. Larijani's death was confirmed by Defense Minister Israel Katz on Tuesday.
This comes days after he and other regime members had appeared in public during Friday’s Quds Day events. Larijani was rumored to be one of the Tehran regime’s figures who might assume leadership after Israel and US strikes on February 28 killed other regime officials, including the supreme leader.
Israel also targeted the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Basij paramilitary militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, and his deputy, Seyyed Karishi.
Larijani, at age 67, was a key regime official and a kind of institution in his own right in Iran. His star has been rising for years. He had been sent by Tehran on several key foreign visits prior to the beginning of the war. He was in Russia, for instance. Moscow has not been as supportive of Iran as the regime would have liked.
The Jordanian think tank Politics and Society Institute noted on February 23 that “it is perhaps from precisely this vantage point that the name of Ali Larijani surfaces in contemporary analyses-not because he is the strongest contender [four outright leadership] but because he may be the most suited to a specific function: managing equilibrium should the ground beneath the system begin to tremble.”
This indicates that Larijani's death will leave a major gap in the regime, as he has served as a key figure for so long. The death of the Supreme Leader was felt differently because he was a symbolic head of state as well as the final decision maker. Larijani was more of a behind-the-scenes player, not always at the forefront. He could navigate the halls of power.
Iran’s regime is complex. Its president is not very powerful. The IRGC is the real power behind the throne. Israel has already killed numerous key officials in this war and also in June's 12-day war. Thus, Iran has gotten used to replacing some key people. However, there could come a breaking point.
Larijani comes from prominent political, religious family
Larijani was important, as is his family. The Larijani family is from Damavand in northern Iran. He was born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1957, when his father was working there. His family network is important within the Iranian regime, and it has inserted itself in what one Turkish media outlet called an “influential web of power intersected across the upper echelon of the regime.”
The report above from the Jordanian think tank notes that “Larijani’s father, Grand Ayatollah Mirza Hashem Amoli, was a respected jurist, granting his sons early scholarly legitimacy. His brothers have occupied influential positions: Sadegh Larijani, a jurist and former head of the judiciary as well as a member of key constitutional bodies, and at times mentioned among potential successors to supreme leader Ali Khamenei.”
It then noted that “Larijani holds a PhD in philosophy, a background reflected in his political style-measured rhetoric, deliberative decision-making, and a preference for layered solutions.”
Larijani had attempted to run for president in the past. He did not succeed. He was also a key player in the 25-year deal between Iran and China. Like the maneuvering with Russia, Iran has found that China has not been very supportive in this war. Iran and Russia are waiting on the sidelines. Thus, Larijani’s work with these key countries actually did not produce the results he intended.
Larijani had a long pedigree in Iran’s bureaucracy and in the regime's history. He was an officer in the IRGC during the Iran-Iraq war. Later, as he was rising in the bureaucracy, he was Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister in the 1990s and also ran an Iranian state broadcaster.
He later worked directly with supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council and served as Parliament speaker.
In addition, he previously played a role in Iran’s policy in Europe. This was another failure of Iran’s long-term agenda. Larijani could therefore be seen as a key regime figure who also failed to position Iran strongly on the international stage. As such, his death could be seen as a kind of “culling” of the herd, the removal of a big beast from Iran’s apparatchik class of aging leaders.
Turkey’s TRT noted in 2022 that “when Hassan Rouhani rose to power in 2013, Ali Larijani did everything he could to help the new president’s agenda. He famously gave the 290 members of Majlis only 20 minutes to discuss the 2015 nuclear agreement, which Rouhani’s government had reached with world powers. Even with Rouhani out of the office and the Majlis controlling the hardline faction, Ali Larijani chose to stay in the political power’s center.”
Larijani’s death could weaken the regime, but it could also become the passing of yet another older figure and provide time for a new generation of IRGC men to take the reins and decide what to do next. Larijani came of age when Iran’s Islamic revolution was rising. He guided the country when it was more of an international player. Now it is isolated and weakened. He may not have been well suited to serve an isolated and weakened regime.