Tremendous pressure is being brought on Israel to conclude its war against Hamas. As is obvious to anyone who follows the news, significant domestic pressure is being heaped on Prime Minister Netanyahu. Add to that the pressure from a wide swath of international governments and forces. The most pressure, however – the loudest, most intense pressure – is being applied by the White House.
The White House is turning the screws on Netanyahu. Even though President Biden’s agenda has no basis in military tactics or international law, when the president of the United States offers an ultimatum, no matter his agenda, the world takes heed. It’s no matter that Biden is pressuring Israel only because he thinks that Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza may jeopardize his election in November, which is why the White House wants Israel to stop the war now.
Given all that pressure, will Israel bring the war to an end? If it does end soon, it will not be because Netanyahu is withering under pressure. It will be because the end has come for the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar.
Yahya Sinwar: The man who determines the fate of the Israel-Hamas War
Sinwar is the linchpin. Sinwar is the key.
Whether he is killed, captured, commits suicide, or escapes to Egypt and then beyond – or whether he’s part of a hostage deal allowing him to go into exile – it makes no difference. What matters is that Sinwar must no longer be a presence and no longer a threat. No longer can he have the ability, even remotely, to challenge Israel and motivate Hamas.
THE BEST analysis places Sinwar somewhere in the labyrinth of tunnels with a group of his inner circle and the hostages. We know that the IDF’s crack commando units have been right on his tail and just missed him. Why else would Sinwar be in such a hurry that he would leave millions of dollars and shekels and Iranian documents showing the allocation of monies in support of Hamas and direct funds from Iran to Sinwar himself?
Getting Sinwar is not simply a symbolic gesture or a pyrrhic victory. Sinwar’s continued survival is what lends the inspiration that drives Hamas terrorists to continue their fight. If their leader can survive, they, too, can survive and fight on.
Getting Sinwar is not simply cutting off the head of the Hamas snake. No other person inside Gaza can replace him. And those outside of Gaza have no credibility; they do not have the magnetism to motivate Hamas to continue their war. We know this from the video interrogations of Hamas officers captured by the IDF. They bluntly explain that their motivation has already been severely sapped.
Throughout history, when a leader, a general, or a king falls in battle, the stability and the foundations of that society are shaken. Certainly, the battle lines and the war change. Often, when the general or king was killed in battle or taken captive, the rest of their fighters and followers escaped in fear. The captive king – or his head – would be paraded as a sign of victory. That is why, in some of these battles, there were warriors who dressed up as the king. They were decoys, leading the enemy army to wonder who and where the real king was. If the king were to die in battle, his followers would lose their motivation to fight; they would flee, fearing a massacre or slavery.
Rome was the exception. Roman generals gave orders that were delivered to small units of 120 soldiers. So, when Marc Antony was defeated in Mutina in 43 CE and both Roman consuls, Hirtius and Pansa, were mortally wounded, Rome was still victorious. That was because the small Roman units got their orders and continued fighting to achieve their goals, thus defeating Antony.
Today, however, war is guided by international law, and the IDF is guided by Ruach Tzahal, its Code of Conduct. If Israel assassinates Sinwar, that would resolve certain issues. If he gives himself up and/or is captured, it would become a serious ethical dilemma. According to international law, whoever surrenders must be arrested and tried. Certainly, Sinwar would be convicted and imprisoned. But he would be very much alive, and he would be in line to be released again, as he once was in exchange for Gilad Schalit.
Israel will offer “unconditional surrender” to Hamas. The concept is historically important, and while it guarantees nothing, it ends the war.
The best historical example of unconditional surrender concerned Union General Ulysses S. Grant and the Battle of Fort Donelson in 1862. Confederate General Buckner sent terms of his surrender to Grant. Grant responded, “No terms except unconditional and immediate surrender.” President Lincoln was so impressed that he nicknamed Grant “Unconditional Surrender Grant.”
Think of it like a game of chess. When the king is trapped, the game is over. Sinwar will be caught. It is just a matter of time.
The writer is a social and political commentator. Watch his TV show Thinking Out Loud on JBS.