The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, marked a significant geopolitical shift in the region, posing a serious political and military setback for Israel. It has compelled Israel to reengage with the issue of establishing a Palestinian state, which had been sidelined for years. The suppression of the Palestinian cause in global politics was largely due to Israeli efforts during the Trump administration.
Former US president Donald Trump’s policy aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approach, focusing on improving relations with the Arab world while sidelining the Palestinian issue. This shift was evident in the signing of the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, with Saudi Arabia’s tacit approval.
This marked a departure from Saudi Arabia’s traditional stance, which linked normalization with Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Discussions to expand the Abraham Accords, particularly with Saudi Arabia, took place during the Biden administration, leading to a tentative agreement for a defense alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United States, along with normalization with Israel.
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, the Biden administration has seized an opportunity to rekindle discussions on the “two states for two peoples” solution and bring the issue of a Palestinian state back into focus. Throughout the conflict, US President Joe Biden voiced support for a unified governing system for a Palestinian state (even without territorial continuity).
The administration began conditioning normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on Israel’s willingness to transfer control of Gaza to a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority post-Hamas’s defeat, aiming for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
This policy is underscored by efforts to promote the Palestinian cause directly with regional countries, bypassing Israel. According to The Washington Post on February 15, 2024, the United States and a select group of Middle Eastern nations are swiftly working on a detailed plan for Middle East peace, including a tight schedule for establishing a Palestinian state.
Israel must continue to resist the idea of unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian state and find ways to counter American pressure on the matter. The Israeli government’s declaratory resolution, which opposes the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, received overwhelming support in the Knesset with 99 out of 120 members voting in favor. This action demonstrated Israel’s broad public consensus against being coerced into establishing a Palestinian state without direct negotiations between the parties and rejected foreign interference in resolving the conflict.
Palestinian state rewards terrorism
The notion of unilaterally recognizing the establishment of a Palestinian state suggests that even the most heinous attack on Jews since the Holocaust hasn’t sufficiently swayed the US democratic administration. Their stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains entrenched in the belief of a “two states for two peoples” solution.
Granting recognition to a Palestinian state post the events of October 2023 would be a reward for Palestinian terrorism. This action might embolden Palestinians to persist in their terrorism against Israel until their ultimate objective – the creation of a single Arab state from the river to the sea – is achieved. According to a recent poll conducted amid the ongoing Gaza conflict, 82% of Palestinian Authority residents support the Hamas attack on October 7.
The Palestinian Authority’s stance toward Israel closely mirrors that of Hamas in Gaza. Through its education, culture, and the official media, the PA consistently foments hostility toward Israel and the Jewish people. Moreover, it financially incentivizes terrorism against Jews by providing allowances to the families of terrorists. These actions not only perpetuate animosity towards Israel but also undermine the legitimacy of the Jewish state.
Moreover, the reality suggests that the PA lacks the capacity to effectively govern a state entity. This deficiency in governance and administrative capabilities poses significant security threats to Israel.
Without the presence of Israeli security forces in Judea and Samaria, it is plausible that the PA would have collapsed due to the erosion of its leadership’s legitimacy, potentially leading to Hamas’s takeover. Recognizing the PA as a Palestinian state could result in instability and the rise of a radical Islamic regime. Even the current US administration acknowledges the necessity of reform within the PA for it to function as a responsible state, highlighting the importance of demilitarization.
From a topographical perspective, a Palestinian state controlling the mountain range of the Land of Israel would have control over the densely populated coastal plain, which includes critical infrastructure like airports, seaports, government offices, and military bases. This strategic area could be vulnerable to continuous terror attacks from the Palestinian state or its elements.
Without Israeli control over the entire territory from the river to the sea, certain areas of the country would be reduced to narrow strips, making them susceptible to terror raids and invasions.
Israel must continue to resist international pressures, particularly from the US, to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. It should emphasize the importance of broad agreements between Washington and Jerusalem, focusing on defeating Hamas and enhancing security to prevent future attacks against the Jewish state like the one of October 7.
Regarding the Gaza Strip, Israel should reject PA administration and Arab parties’ involvement, promoting civilian control by Gazan business leaders and dignitaries. Israeli military control of the entire strip, including the Philadelphi Corridor, would benefit Gazan residents economically and civilly, while also distinguishing Gaza from the PA, thereby weakening the Palestinian national movement, which opposes Israel.
The writer is a military strategy and national security expert and a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and at the Israel Defense and Security Forum (Habithonistim).