You can eliminate a terrorist. You cannot eliminate an ideology. Ideologies morph into dogma and then into radical cults.
The Shia extremists of Iran have for the last 30 years been developing a caliphate starting in Iran travelling to Iraq, Syria then Lebanon. Their cultish goal is to eliminate every Jew in their expanding path. How they continue in their efforts is based on radical religious beliefs and the power of cult philosophies.
Leon Festinger, a psychologist who at the time worked at the University of Minnesota, decided to follow a cult that he had read about. Mrs. Keech, whose real name was Dorothy Martin, told followers that she had received messages from aliens stating that the world would end on a specific date. She attracted a large following and the group developed a beliefs-based cult called the Seekers. When the date passed without the world ending, the cult nevertheless continued, with a change in focus to proselytizing even more with the goal of attaining a larger membership.
Adapting a false ideology when confronted with reality
Festinger and colleagues wrote a book about the cult titled When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group That Predicted the Destruction of the World in which he advanced the theory of cognitive dissonance. In terms of cults, the theory suggests that cult members beliefs cannot be erroneous even if proven wrong. Cult members adapt to their belief failures by increasing their determination to establish and prove that they are correct. In the process they expand their membership.
While Festinger and his partners did groundbreaking work, the focus on this one group failed to explore the larger issue of cults.
This group is by no means the only one with a similar dogma. What we learn from studying other groups is that prophecies that cult members adhere to virtually never fail. The belief systems of cults are robust, even when contradicted by reality.
Regardless of the outcome of the Israel-Hamas war, Hamas, the cult that it is, will claim victory. Like all other radical cults, the level of cognitive dissonance which embodies their belief that the Hamas charter cannot be wrong has provided the impetus to expand their influence. And this cult has already set up the considerations to do so.
By attacking Israel with well-written and militarily exercised plans, threatening residents, raping and mutilating, taking hostages, and not negotiating in earnest, while adding to a cult of followers worldwide, Hamas will claim triumph.
The October 7 war started by Hamas is asymmetrical and can also be considered guerrilla warfare, which has assumed a universal character under the banner of religious fundamentalism. Unfortunately, these unconventional actors attract religious fanatics to carry out vicious terrorist attacks, the most famous being the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001. An asymmetric war is one of the most difficult, challenging, and complex wars of modern times because you are fighting terrorists who have a strong religious conviction. Using their losses as a publicity stunt, they lose but win.
Hamas delights in collateral damage even to its own, a fact that should be an anathema to the world. Yet the intensity of its convictions is what attracts followers.
In contrast, Israel’s challenges are compounded by the fact that Israel as a country is not a cult and therefore has virtually no support in the world, this is itself a very telling phenomenon.
In an asymmetric battlefield, where the rules are fluid – sustained, unrestrained firepower is the only way for a decisive military win.
In 2010, it was only this unrestrained firepower of the dominating Nigerian forces that led to the surrender of Boko Haram terrorist commanders; nothing else would have worked, dishonest negotiations are part of the terrorists’ tools.
The Nigerian military government should be applauded for their military transformation, where deviant innovation became its battlefield education and this retooling led to the complete annihilation of the terrorist entity living among the civilians.
Henry Kissinger said that “the guerrilla wins if he does not lose. The conventional army loses if it does not win.” This is a warning to Israeli military leadership.
It’s about intelligence and planning, Israel must put itself in the mind of Hamas and Hezbollah to degrade the threat of radical cult terrorism. Presently, Israel will “win” this war, but it will be a Pyrrhic or hollow victory, meaning that Israel has suffered such harm that its victory will be hard to differentiate from a defeat.
Hamas’s style is evident in its hesitancy to work toward a ceasefire. Israel has agreed to basic principles, but Hamas will not offer names of hostages remaining alive to move the deal forward.
Yet, the media levels blame Israel. UN officials state that UNRWA workers were coerced by Israeli officials to say that they were Hamas members without acknowledging the very real likelihood that Hamas threatened them to say that.
Hamas has spent a great deal of time and money establishing networks, with legions of followers throughout the free world who aggressively support Hamas lies all while denying real reports, to support their cultish goals. Without an effort to confront the beliefs and character of the radicals in Hamas, Hezbollah, and others, battlefield success will be paltry as the cults will continue to attract believers.
Louis H Libin is president of Broadcom cyber security and secure wireless systems, a specialist in public safety and military preparedness, and an adjunct professor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own. Dr. Michael J Salamon is a psychologist who specializes in trauma and abuse. He is director of ADC Psychological Services in Netanya and Hewlett, NY, and is on staff at Northwell, New Hyde Park, NY.