The images coming out of Gaza are devastating. There, the Hamas terrorist controls the territory and impedes efforts to end the conflict.
However, in 2025, Gaza isn’t the only place showing such grim images, even if they’re less visible on our nightly news.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a group allied with ISIS’s Central Africa Province, continue to commit atrocities, displacing millions as they fight over territory and resources.
In Burkina Faso, jihadist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM – Support Group for Islam and Muslims), affiliated with al-Qaida, and the local group Ansarul Islam (Partisans of Islam) carry out deadly attacks, increasingly controlling parts of the countryside. In Yemen, ongoing conflict involving groups like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Houthi militants continues to fuel famine and displacement.
Across all these regions – Gaza, Yemen, Burkina Faso, Congo – the culprits differ, but the patterns are devastatingly similar. Young people, often unemployed and disenfranchised, are drawn into armed groups that offer purpose, structure, and resources.
What do these regions have in common, and why do they keep turning into zones of war and famine? The common point to all of these regions suffering from war, displaced families, and lack of food is the high fertility rates in these states.
The facts are clear.
Countries today experiencing famine and protracted wars have high fertility rates; six or seven children per woman is not unusual. By contrast, in stable, prosperous nations, fertility has declined to around two children or fewer – less than replacement level.
Disenfranchised youth
Along with and because of the high number of children per woman, the median age is low, hovering around 18, whereas in Europe it is around 40. The implication of this low median age is that the proportion of young people aged 14 to 29 is more than 40%, whereas in Europe it is less than half of that amount – under 20%.
The youth bulge is related to conflicts and war.
Sociological research has found that countries with high proportions of youth are significantly more likely to experience civil unrest or war. My research confirms and extends these findings: when fertility rates rise above five children per woman, the probability of conflict reaches 75%. When fertility falls below two, it drops to under 8%.
Indeed, regions like Gaza, Yemen, Burkina Faso, and Congo all have fertility rates higher than five, and a youth bulge of more than 40%. Why do we have this link between the number of young people and conflicts?
Biology and economics
The reasons are biological and economic.
Biologically, young men full of hormones are more prone to risk-taking, aggression, and violence.
Sociologists have shown that this age cohort is responsible for most violent crimes and political upheaval. Decades of criminological research show that young males are disproportionately prone to aggression and account for most acts of violent crime.
Economically, as highlighted by the Solow growth model, high fertility rates tend to reduce capital accumulation, leading to resource scarcity and lack of infrastructure.
Rapid population growth can dilute both physical and human capital, leading to low wages and unemployment. These economic hardships increase frustration among the youth and heighten their vulnerability to recruitment by militant groups or involvement in civil unrest and armed conflict.
A country with a massive surplus of unemployed, frustrated young men, due to lack of capital and infrastructure, combined with weak institutions, inevitably drifts toward unrest, gangs, militias, and famine. Indeed, the consequence of this youth bulge is that vast numbers of young men grow up in poverty, facing bleak prospects, and violence becomes endemic.
Rise of gangs
This gives rise to gangs in urban areas, mafias in regions, and terrorist groups that attract the youth bulge by offering them a military structure, food, and weapons.
This is how Hamas emerged in Gaza, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, ADF in Congo, and JNIM in Burkina Faso – all groups of young fighters led by elite individuals who enjoy wielding power and who exploit the vulnerabilities of the youth.
Of course, one can also add religion and social norms, but to understand why Gaza is mired in a trap of poverty, unemployment, and violence, the essential variable that explains it is the high fertility rate and high percentage of youth bulge.
UN exacerbates conflicts
Therefore, the policy of the United Nations until now has exacerbated the problem, and no conflicts in the Middle East and Africa have ended. What we saw on October 7, 2023, in Gaza, when hordes of young men crossed into Israeli communities, murdering civilians, raping women, and beheading children, can also happen in Yemen and Congo.
It is time to adopt policies that are adapted to the problems of the Middle East and Africa. Without solving the youth bulge problem, there is no way to find a stable solution in these countries.
The writer is a professor of economics and head of Israeli Macroeconomic Forum at Bar-Ilan University.