In the Middle East, Israel has often had to learn the hard way that appearances are a dangerous thing to trust. Militias become governments, terrorists reinvent themselves as statesmen. And Western diplomats applaud “pragmatism” while beleaguered minorities bury their dead.
Syria today is a case study in that recurring delusion – and Israel is far closer to its consequences than Washington seems willing to admit.
After the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2024, a familiar Western impulse kicked in: relief mixed with hope. Anything, it seemed, had to be better than the butcher of Damascus. Into that vacuum stepped Ahmed al-Sharaa, a man whose resumé includes senior leadership in al-Qaeda-linked factions, now presenting himself as Syria’s unifier and guarantor of order.
The makeover was swift and deliberate. Gone was the jihadist commander; in his place stood a polished figure speaking the language of “minority rights,” “national reconciliation,” and “regional stability.” Gulf capitals listened. Western officials leaned in. Sanctions relief and recognition were quietly floated.
Israel, by contrast, had no illusions.
Jerusalem has long understood a basic regional truth: When jihadists talk about unity, they usually mean submission; and when they promise protection for minorities, it is often a prelude to their elimination.
That reality has been playing out across Syria as minorities have been systematically subjected to violence, displacement, and property seizure, all with the aim of permanently reshaping Syria’s demographic map.
Minorities as targets in Syria
The Druze were among the first targets. In July 2025, Syrian regime forces entered Sweida province, a region Israel watches closely, given its proximity to the Golan Heights and its Druze ties across the border. What followed was not “stabilization” but slaughter. Hundreds were killed. Dozens of civilians were executed. Homes were burned and looted. Entire communities were devastated.
Christians soon followed. Churches were attacked. Clergy were murdered. In one particularly horrific incident in mid-2025, a Protestant pastor and 11 members of his family were killed in Sweida amid regime-linked violence. Syria’s ancient Christian presence – already reduced to a fraction of its former size – is now in danger of being extinguished under a government that claims to represent a “new Syria.”
The Kurds, despite years of cooperation with the United States against ISIS, were next. Through late 2025 and into early 2026, regime offensives rolled through northern Syria, capturing Raqqa and parts of Deir ez-Zor. Kurdish forces were coerced into agreements that stripped them of autonomy and control over energy resources.
From Israel’s perspective, this mattered deeply. Kurdish self-rule had acted as a buffer against an ISIS resurgence and unchecked jihadist control. Its dismantling strengthens precisely the actors Jerusalem has spent a decade containing.
And then there were the Alawites, a breakaway group from Shia Islam to which the Assad family belonged. In March 2025, regime forces carried out a brutal assault on their coastal strongholds, killing more than 1,000 people in a matter of days. This was not justice for Assad-era crimes: It was collective punishment, a dire warning to any group perceived as expendable.
Taken together, these events tell a single story: Ahmed al-Sharaa did not abandon jihadism. He institutionalized it.
Not only the bloodshed
What makes this especially troubling for Israel is not only the bloodshed itself but the international response to it. Or rather, the lack of one.
While Israeli officials quietly warned that Syria was sliding toward a familiar extremist pattern, Washington continued to flirt with engagement. Al-Sharaa’s assurances – including those reportedly conveyed to President Donald Trump – were treated as evidence of moderation. His actions were dismissed as the “growing pains” of a post-Assad transition.
Israel has seen this movie before.
It watched Hamas win elections and turn Gaza into a terror enclave. It watched Hezbollah enter Lebanese politics while building a missile empire. And it is now watching Syria’s newest strongman massacre minorities while wearing a suit and talking about sovereignty.
Sen. Lindsey Graham has been among the few American leaders willing to say out loud what Israel already knows: Syria cannot be unified through coercion, and assaults on Kurds and other minorities will not bring stability.
For Israel, this is not an academic debate. A jihadist-led Syria that crushes minorities, absorbs Kurdish regions, and centralizes power through sectarian terror is not a “stabilized” Syria. It is a strategic threat, one that emboldens extremists and destabilizes Israel’s northern frontier.
Diplomacy is not the problem – amnesia is.
Throughout the region, the United States has paid dearly for mistaking rebranded extremists for partners. And Israel has often been left to deal with the fallout.
If the international community once again chooses illusion over evidence, and Syria’s new ruler continues to brutally consolidate his power, Israel will face yet another hostile reality shaped by Western wishful thinking.
But the undeniable truth is that a regime built on sectarian terror, jihadist pedigree, and international indulgence is not a stabilizing force – it is a future battlefield.
If al-Sharaa’s Syria is rewarded while minorities are crushed, the lesson will echo far beyond Damascus. And when the illusions finally collapse – as they always do in the Middle East – it is Israel that will be left confronting the reality the West chose not to see.
The writer served as deputy communications director under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.