Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington to meet President Donald Trump for just under three hours and reported that they were as one on dealing with Iran. Not quite: Beneath all the warm and fuzzy, there could be trouble.
Neither man fully trusts the other. Trump fears that Bibi may sabotage his negotiations by attacking unilaterally, and Bibi dreads that Trump will cut a deal, leaving Iran’s ballistic missiles in place and Israel vulnerable.
Both leaders want to make sure the Islamic Republic doesn’t join the nuclear club, but Bibi wants more.
Nukes, of course, are a serious issue, but there’s no evidence that the Iranians are anywhere near having one they can deliver on the tip of a ballistic missile. But they do have a lot of missiles.
Those missiles, which can hit any target in Israel, are here and now. They’re today’s problem; the bomb is tomorrow’s. Israel’s interest is in stopping the present threat, either by diplomatic or military means, and now.
As he left Washington, Bibi emphasized to reporters that any deal with Iran must include ballistic missiles and an end to its terror funding.
Trump’s response was discouraging. “We just have to see what the outcome will be” in Geneva when his emissaries – his old friend and golf buddy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner – sit down this week with the Iranians, he said.
Bibi distrusts the Iranians. Trump has supreme confidence in his negotiating skills and doesn’t want the Israeli PM to derail what he undoubtedly believes is his best chance for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Perhaps to keep Bibi from derailing the negotiations or because he asked, Trump castigated the president of Israel for not pardoning the prime minister, who is on trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. The disgraced, impeached, and convicted felon told President Isaac Herzog that he should be “ashamed of himself” for not granting Trump’s demand.
Don’t be shocked. Both Trump and Bibi have long and disgraceful histories of intervening in the partisan politics of each other’s countries. And each is worried about their respective upcoming elections – and what any defeat could mean for their prospects of staying out of jail.
Why Israel wants to curb Iran's ballistic missiles
NETANYAHU WANTS substantial and verifiable restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, production, range, and technology transfer. The Iranians have indicated they are ready to compromise on their nuclear program but not their missiles, which they consider their first line of defense against Israel.
Trump told Bibi to give his diplomacy a chance, and if that fails, he would back Israeli attacks on Iran’s ballistic missiles. But if there is a nuclear deal, Trump would likely demand Israel hold its fire. Despite or because of the warning, the president reportedly fears that the prime minister may grow impatient if the negotiations drag out and decide to act unilaterally.
A key element of Trump’s negotiating style is his unpredictability. That’s not just because he likes to keep everyone guessing; he often acts on a whim and sometimes doesn’t have a carefully thought-out plan.
The threat of force is a favorite tool. He may not speak softly, but he carries some big sticks and likes waving them around. He believes in gunboat diplomacy, and he has the world’s biggest gunboats – two aircraft carrier strike forces – and they can be very persuasive if the guy across the table believes you’re willing to use them.
This is also personal. Trump tore up Barack Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear pact with Iran, calling it “horrible and one-sided,” and announced that he could do much better. It took 10 years, but he’s finally trying. The opportunity to boast that he could make a better deal than his bete noir, Obama, is no doubt a motivating factor, and substance is less important than bragging rights for making a deal, which he will declare the finest one since God’s covenant with Abraham.
Bibi should also worry about the Iranians learning to speak colloquial Trump. They’re dangling visions of lucrative trade deals they hope may pave the way to his transactional heart.
Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC that “Common interests in the oil and gas fields, joint fields, mining investments, and even aircraft purchases” are on the table. That way, he added, “the US also benefits in areas with high and quick economic returns.” Maybe even license a Trump Tower in downtown Tehran.
All the Iranians ask for is sanctions relief, he said. Takht-Ravanchi rejected any linkage to the ballistic missile program, saying that demands for zero uranium enrichment are unacceptable, but other restrictions are negotiable.
IRAN’S ECONOMY is a basket case, thanks largely to American-led international sanctions. The relief the minister seeks would release money to build more missiles, fund its terror network, and keep a theocratic authoritarian government in control. Hopes for regime change could dissolve into regime rescue.
Remember, it was that brutal oppression that captured Trump’s interest. Millions of Iranians have been protesting around the country against their corrupt government, its deadly crackdown, and its disastrous economy. He promised them, “Help is on the way.” That was January 13; they’re still waiting more than a month later.
The protesters were demanding regime change, which Trump said is “the best thing that could happen.”
Forget about it, said Vice President JD Vance, the administration’s leading isolationist. The US goal in Iran is preventing nuclear weapons, and regime change is “up to the Iranian people,” he said. “If the Iranian people want to overthrow the regime, that’s up to the Iranian people.”
Vance speaks for many in the MAGA cult who want to shrink the American global role. They see Iran as mostly Israel’s problem, and they don’t want Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, the Europeans, or anyone else dragging their country into another foreign conflict.
Bibi is right. The extensive and expanding Iranian ballistic missile arsenal is today’s clear and present danger – as is the funding for Tehran’s network of terror proxies, which would get a boost from lifting sanctions. The nuclear threat must not be ignored, but it is not nearly as urgent.
If Iran is ripe for regime change, this is no time for regime rescue, which is what lifting sanctions would amount to.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.