The war against Iran has entered a dangerous and unpredictable phase. What was once a theoretical option for a US-Israel strike has now happened, setting off a rapid escalation that extends far beyond Iran’s borders.
Tehran responded by naming US bases and Israel as direct targets while also expanding the confrontation to include the Gulf states. That expansion has turned the conflict into a regional crisis, with far-reaching implications for the security balance across the Middle East.
Iran’s escalation has already produced severe outcomes, including increased military activity, threats to critical infrastructure, and growing instability across the Gulf.
The confrontation weakens prospects for diplomacy, fuels internal unrest inside Iran, and threatens global economic stability through disruptions to energy markets and shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf states, despite their initial restraint and their efforts to persuade Washington to delay military action, now face mounting pressure as the conflict spreads to their territory and populations.
Against this backdrop, the central question has shifted. Iran’s reaction to the US and Israel matters, yet the more urgent issue is how Iran’s system of rule will evolve under the weight of war.
Khamenei's death shifts power toward IRGC
The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has effectively shifted power toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a development that has already prompted the renewed activation of regional proxy networks, as recent events in Lebanon and Bahrain suggest.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi even stated that Iran’s armed forces are now operating “independently and somewhat in isolation” after Khamenei’s death. The remark suggests that central command no longer aligns with the emerging leadership, and it captures the sharp volatility of the current moment.
What initially looked like a limited Iranian response has developed into a broad attack on Gulf states, including harm to civilians and public property. The growing threat to critical infrastructure, including the King Fahd Causeway and the Hidd Bridge, underscores the severity of the situation.
At the same time, demonstrations by pro-Iranian Shi’ite groups in Bahrain have intensified, placing the government under additional pressure.
Authorities now have to split their attention between external threats and internal stability. They need to manage these demonstrations with both sensitivity and effectiveness, neutralizing them without sparking further tensions.
Gulf states have shown notable restraint so far, but the durability of that restraint remains uncertain, especially as Iranian escalation continues and after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s declaration that any future attack originating from Iran will be met with a response.
The current moment reflects a dangerous intersection of regional instability, internal pressures, and escalation risks that could break free of control.
The conflict is changing character. It is moving from direct kinetic strikes between states toward a prolonged war of attrition, as Iranian military units operate with growing autonomy following the supreme leader’s death.
The adoption of a “decentralized mosaic defense” strategy, which Araghchi pointed to, raises the likelihood of unexpected attacks on critical infrastructure and vital energy hubs.
Gulf states now face a two-front challenge. They must sustain effective interception capabilities against unpredictable missile barrages while also protecting internal stability in the face of pro-Iranian mobilization. Their restraint has prevented a wider conflagration so far, yet it is not guaranteed at a moment when the region’s security architecture is under unprecedented strain.
Ultimately, the conflict’s trajectory will depend on whether crisis management and containment can overcome the momentum of escalation. In this reality, diplomacy functions as a secondary mechanism for managing escalation, while the region prepares to confront a neighbor that may feel it has nothing left to lose.
The writer is a geopolitical adviser and analyst from Bahrain. Maariv's Anna Barsky contributed to this op-ed.