Nearly 80 years after Qazi Mohammed declared a Kurdish Republic in Mahabad, the people of Rojhelat (Iranian Kurdistan) find themselves once again at the center of great power politics.
The ayatollah is dead and the mullah regime is set to collapse. Israel and the United States are striking deep in regime-held territory, determined to eliminate what remains of the Islamic Republic’s criminal enterprise. Senior commanders of the republic’s IRGC are falling one by one and military officials responsible for mass repression of the country’s people are meeting their end. The old order that defined Iran’s theocratic extremism is crumbling, and a new Iran struggles to take flight.
Forty-seven years of mass repression – and sponsoring of terrorism that is responsible for some of the worst human rights abuses seen in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and beyond – is giving way. Basij and IRGC elements already flood the streets of Iran’s cities to crack down on celebrators of the ayatollah’s death, while the regime lodges ballistic missiles indiscriminately against its neighbors.
Washington and Jerusalem rightly continue to take out Iran’s military infrastructure, hindering its capacity to enact violence and threaten the region – however, this will not be enough to ensure the threat is eliminated.
What comes after the regime is now the question that must be asked by both the people of Iran and the great powers. A unique window of opportunity is here that will decide the country’s future, and while Washington and Jerusalem’s help remain imperative, regime change needs to be facilitated in coordination with locals within the country.
Securing domestic cooperation creates fertile ground for deeper systemic changes needed to ensure that the regime holds no future in directing the country and poses no ongoing external threat. This fundamentally means that anti-regime alliances must be formed and a political roadmap created.
Opportunity for the Kurds
On the forefront of these necessary alliances are the Kurds, who are in a critical position to offer substantial support to how the future vision of the country is framed. A coalition of Kurdish parties in Iran made up of differing political orientations is already in position and armed to act. “The Alliance of Political Parties of Iranian Kurdistan” is spearheaded by the “Masoud Barzani” of Rojhelat, Mustafa Hijri of the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran (PDKI).
This union of Rojhelati parties includes the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Khabat), and Komala, to name the most prominent. While in past decades these parties were divided by ideology and historical grievances, the shifting political landscape brought on by the weakening of a common enemy now brings them together.
Washington is eager to make inroads with this coalition and President Donald Trump has already been in contact with Hijri. This comes after the Trump administration’s efforts at vetting potential contenders to the current regime’s rule are not bearing fruit. Some of the contenders, such as the former shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, have so far not been taken seriously by Trump.
Similarly, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) and its leader, Maryam Rajavi, who has deep pockets and the ears of prominent officials in Washington, are not in the running.
Many of these contenders either do not hold significant local support or have been deemed by Trump as not ideal to lead. This leaves limited options for the White House to consider, as a dominant unified Iranian opposition is yet to materialize. The absence of concerted opposition overtime would likely weaken Trump’s interest in prolonged engagement in Iran, allowing the regime to remain.
Allies for the United States
Washington's considerations signal that it is attentive to the political landscape and the viability of regime alternatives, as a multi-year CIA effort to train and equip Rojhelati Kurds for ground operations indicates that other options are being pursued.
Previous years have shown that the United States’ partnership with local Kurdish forces in Syria (Rojava) and Iraq (Bashur), such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Peshmerga, bore considerable fruit. The Kurds have been incredibly effective in helping topple Saddam Hussein’s regime and in fighting the Islamic State. Having Kurds as reliable allies on the ground gives the United States a viable path into the rest of the country.
The Kurdish people are no strangers to the repression of the mullah regime and are well positioned to know what to expect from it. Decades of battle experience by repeated confrontations between IRGC forces, Peshmerga, and guerrillas emphasize this. Tens of thousands of Kurdish lives taken by the regime and its affiliates means the ground of Rojhelat is stained with blood.
Kholbars, informal laborers who trek across mountains carrying heavy supplies, never made it to their loved ones across the border. Hundreds of political prisoners, languishing in jails for decades never to see their loved ones again, faced death prematurely. Even the young are not spared, as seen with the brutal beating of a young Kurdish girl, Jina Mahsa Amini in 2022. No aspect of Kurdish life has been spared by the wickedness of the regime.
However, the Kurds are also very attentive to the costs of a partnership with a great power. Qazi Mohammed established a Kurdish Republic in Mahabad with the support of the Soviet Union in 1946. When that support was pulled, the Republic fell and he was hung. Kurds remember that and the lives they gave in recent conflicts in Iraq and Syria – those in Rojhelat are not naive to what is now being asked of them.
This is where the United States and by extension Israel must be clear-eyed. Kurds are people who live in the country and who want the same basic freedoms, rights, and acknowledgment that all peoples want. They want to coexist in the region and within Iran but want security guarantees that can be assured in any future political settlement. This is what Hijri means by “federalism”: A federal republic of Iran with high levels of autonomy for its ethnic components is the model of governance that best governs.
Qazi Mohammed was left to hang when great power support evaporated. The Kurds of Rojhelat know that history intimately, and so must Washington and Jerusalem. A federal republic of Iran built on a sincere partnership with its Kurdish population and other minorities is not only the most viable post-regime outcome – it is the only one worth sacrificing for.
The author is an Australian freelance writer who writes on politics, foreign policy, and the Middle East with a focus on minority rights. He has written for John Hopkins University’s SAIS Europe Journal of Global Affairs including online syndications such as The Tibetan Review and The Jerusalem Post. You can find him on X: @StoicViper