Israel's government knew the risks of haredi draft evasion – and ignored them - opinion

There are few moments in a nation’s history when its citizens can watch events unfold in real time and say they witnessed their own government knowingly, deliberately, and willingly weaken the country.

That is exactly what this government has done over the past few days by passing two laws designed to allow ultra-Orthodox (haredi) Israelis to continue evading military service while shielding them from the consequences of breaking the law.

It weakens the military, erodes the social contract, and once again places narrow political interests ahead of Israel’s national security.

The head of Military Intelligence’s Research Division at the time had sent him a number of letters warning exactly this, and the IDF chief of staff then, Herzi Halevi, famously tried to meet with Netanyahu just before the Knesset voted on a key judicial overhaul, but was rebuffed.

Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief Ronen Bar also warned that Israel’s enemies saw Israel’s domestic crisis as a sign of weakness.

Those warnings were all ignored, and the consequences are well known – an attack that was the darkest day in Israel’s history, followed by three years of war that still do not seem to have a clear ending.

I am not suggesting that these draft laws will lead to another October 7. But there is no ambiguity – the warnings are not buried inside classified letters. Instead, they are being delivered publicly by the IDF itself.

The military has been saying for months that it does not have enough soldiers. The number – nearly 15,000 – is staggering.

Reservists continue to carry the burden of this war despite having already served hundreds of days, leaving behind businesses, careers, and families while answering call-up after call-up because the country needs them.

But instead of doing what it can to alleviate the burden, the government’s response is to extend compulsory service for those already serving and ask reservists to continue carrying the load.

This is despite the fact that tens of thousands of healthy young Israelis who are capable of serving remain outside the system simply because they are haredi.

This debate is not about faith or observance. A person can value Torah learning while also understanding that everyone needs to serve in the IDF.

There have been countless examples of deeply religious soldiers studying Talmud inside tanks, teaching Torah classes from the battlefields of Gaza and Lebanon, and combining strict, serious religious commitment with meaningful military service.

Torah learning has preserved the Jewish people for thousands of years and remains one of the foundations of Israeli society, but it does not stand alone. No society can survive without sharing in the burden of the collective. That is what the haredim refuse to accept.

Netanyahu knows all this. So do the members of his coalition who voted for the two laws this week. They also know that their Likud and Religious Zionist Party voters do not support giving the ultra-Orthodox a continued exemption from service.

I know that a lot of people think that this is impossible because both former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot have promised they will not sit with the ultra-Orthodox and that they will make sure to pass the necessary laws to draft them.

That is all true right now. But in the aftermath of an election, if Eisenkot and Bennett have the opportunity to sever the ultra-Orthodox alliance with Netanyahu and bring the haredim into a coalition, they will potentially do so.

Even if some voters are upset that they have reneged and backtracked on their promise, it will be accepted and swallowed because it will lead to the removal of Netanyahu from office.

At the end of the day, the voters who support Eisenkot, Bennett, and Lapid do so mostly because of their desire to remove Netanyahu. How do I know this?

The answer is because, in his heart, Bennett hoped that one day he would be able to bring the ultra-Orthodox into the government. He hoped that he could sever the alliance that Netanyahu had forged with them, and therefore, he didn’t want to ruin his chances.

So, he refused to take the steps then that were necessary to draft them.

Now, though, what makes this moment so troubling is that the government knows exactly what is at stake. This is after October 7. No one can claim they do not understand the potential consequences.

For decades, Israeli governments have operated on one basic principle: security comes first. Coalition agreements, budgets, and legislation were ultimately expected to serve the needs of the defense establishment.

Here, the opposite has happened. These laws may help Netanyahu preserve his coalition and improve his chances of remaining prime minister after the election, but that is not what leadership is meant to be about.

Leadership is supposed to be about making difficult decisions for the good of the country, even when they carry political costs. What we saw this week is the opposite: sacrificing the country’s interests for short-term political survival.

October 7 taught Israel the price of ignoring clear warnings. Today, the IDF is warning, publicly and clearly, that it does not have enough soldiers and that these laws will only make that shortage worse.

No one will be able to say today that they didn’t know the price of their actions. And if the consequences come, history will record that this time the government knew exactly what it was doing.