Reveal of Israel’s intel coup in Iran bolsters deterrence, helps avert war

Iran violated the agreement by presenting a false presentation as an appendix to the contract.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attends a meeting with Muslim leaders and scholars in Hyderabad, India, February 15, 2018. (photo credit: REUTERS)
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attends a meeting with Muslim leaders and scholars in Hyderabad, India, February 15, 2018.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
In the legal world it is customary to attach presentations when signing an agreement. The presentations bind the presenter as part of the contract. If a company is being acquired or a transaction being made, the presentation describes the state of the company that was acquired prior to the acquisition.
If it turns out over time that the presentation presented by either of the parties was incorrect, this constitutes a breach in contract and there is grounds for an annulment of the agreement and for legal action. That was the situation at the time of signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actian, the Iran nuclear deal.
Iran, which was supposed to “come clean” and describe its nuclear activities before the signing of the agreement, argued that it had no plans to produce nuclear weapons. The documents revealed by Israel show that this was a false presentation.
Had Iran presented a true presentation of its plans before the agreement, it would have said that it had a nuclear weapons development program and that the plan had several components.
In addition to uranium enrichment or plutonium production, one of the other components was the production of missiles (as well as nuclear warheads for said missiles). Since Iran did not present what it was supposed to, i.e. its entire plan, including the development and acquisition of missiles, considering that the development of missiles continues until this day, in retrospect, this becomes a further, more serious violation of the agreement.
In conclusion, it can be said that Iran violated the agreement by presenting a false presentation as an appendix to the contract. Further development and manufacture of long-range missiles is another violation, a derivative. These two violations justify the cancellation of the agreement, a lawsuit and sanctions.
According to various spokespeople, it was alleged that these things were known to US president Barack Obama, secretary of state John Kerry and European leaders prior to signing the agreement. There are two possible conclusions: if they knew, then they foolishly committed themselves to a deal that harmed global security. If they did not know, then they “messed up” with the intelligence examination of the issue before signing the agreement. I am ready to define the Obama/Kerry team that led the agreement as the era’s pair of idiots.
Israel’s act of exposure was an excellent strategic operation. The importance of this goes beyond the nuclear agreement itself, which will be discussed in the United States and Europe, and above all, it serves as an important deterrent.
As is well known, intelligence capabilities constitute a strategic force equal to the strength of the fighting branches of countries’ militaries. In other words, it is possible to say in popular language that our enemies now understand that our strategic strength is tremendous, at least in the intelligence sector, which is hugely important. This deters Iran and may prevent a war.
Iran woke up the day after the revelations with sense of nakedness. It felt exposed and weak. Hamas and Hezbollah were also shocked and the chances of attack on their part diminished. The leaders of Europe, Russia and the US Democratic Party will not want to be perceived as “idiots,” as that would cost them in future elections.
Therefore, look for the leaders of Europe, Russia, the heads of the US Democrats and the heads of the CIA to begin a campaign of delegitimization of the Israeli act of exposure to protect their credibility. But make no mistake – they fully understand their failure. From now on, they will behave more cautiously, especially in the negotiations that will apparently begin with the improvements to the JCPOA and the inclusion of the topic of missiles and bomb parts.
Regarding the quality of the negotiations conducted with the Iranians, I would like to say this: in carrying out the Iranian plan to develop a military nuclear capability, in the missile development section, the Iranians have been lagging behind for several years. They know how to enrich uranium, and they have a large array of centrifuges, but they do not have long-range missiles with which to threaten the world. They are continuing to develop missiles and thus closing the gap in implementation. In other words, the West received almost zero rejections of Iranian targets as a result of an agreement. Zero is also the score for Obama and Kerry and all the rest.
Some claimed that the exposure harmed the Mossad. To this I answer that there are strategic situations in which for a significant deterrent advantage, on the eve of war, we can make certain sacrifices.
Please note that in order to prevent an “aggressive Pavlovian” response from all opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, I called this action “Israeli exposure,” and it’s one of which I am very proud.
The author is a retired IDF brigadier general and a member of the Association of Reserve Officers for Israel.