More than 320,000 coronavirus cases in Middle East

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
A man stands in fron of closed Eyup Sultan Mosque during the first day of Ramadan and the second of a four-day curfew, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, in Istanbul, Turkey April 24, 2020 (photo credit: UMIT BEKTAS / REUTERS)
A man stands in fron of closed Eyup Sultan Mosque during the first day of Ramadan and the second of a four-day curfew, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, in Istanbul, Turkey April 24, 2020
(photo credit: UMIT BEKTAS / REUTERS)
There are now more than 320,000 officially reported cases of COVID-19 in the Middle East. The virus continues to spread slowly in most countries, although daily increases in the Gulf tend to exceed 5%.
In addition, several countries that reported few cases are now seeing rises, including Yemen and Sudan.
The largest number of coronavirus cases is in Turkey, which has 124,375. Turkey in mid-March claimed it was a model for fighting the virus and had just a handful of cases. However, it saw rapid increases in late March and early April, leading to an extensive outbreak. Turkey now claims it has gotten it under control and that there are only a few thousand new cases a day.
Iran, which had a huge outbreak in February, has also seen cases declining. It now has 96,448 cases, the government reported. There are concerns that Iran’s data may be too low or that its government is involved in a cover-up. The regime in Tehran has used the coronavirus outbreak to request sanctions relief, which would appear to be at odds with also wanting to cover up the true numbers.
Syria, Libya and Yemen, which are in the midst of civil war, have very few cases. There are only 44 reported cases in Syria and 63 in Libya. There are now 10 cases in Yemen. Because the UN-recognized governments of these countries only control a small part of the country, there is no real way for them to test for the virus or to report official data. That is because there are no independent bodies to affirm the cases, meaning there may be a much wider outbreak in countries where there are ungoverned areas or rebellions. Yemen has seen cases increase from just one to 10, but it appears to be just the tip of the iceberg.
While some countries, using various methods of lockdowns, appear to have kept the number of cases low, such as only 460 reported in the Kingdom of Jordan, the Gulf states have seen rapid increases.
Saudi Arabia has 25,459 cases and Qatar has 14,872. This is despite the fact that many of these countries can easily close their borders and have the hi-tech to test. The UAE, for instance, has tested more than one million people and found 13,599 cases.
All these countries have low death tolls. For 3,200 cases in Bahrain, there are only eight reported deaths. By comparison, Algeria has 4,200 cases and 459 deaths. Turkey has 3,300 deaths. The Gulf states have increases in cases but have provided care to an extent that low death tolls have resulted.
Israel had 16,185 cases as of the morning of May 3 and 229 deaths.
The Middle East now appears to be “flattening” the overall curve of the virus’s spread. Overall cases once peaked at almost 10,000 new ones a day on April 11, according to data from the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. But those numbers have declined to around 7,000 new cases a day in the last 10 days.
This still leaves large question marks about those countries with insufficient testing capacity. The Middle East is a relative hotspot for the virus compared with neighboring regions. For instance, official numbers in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Horn of Africa are far less than the Middle East and North Africa.
Turkmenistan still claims to have no cases, while Tajikistan says it has only 76. Those 76 have appeared in the last few days. Pakistan is worse hit, with around 19,000 cases. Sudan has 500. Greece has 2,600.