The P5+1 Iran nuclear deal or Obama as Icarus

As President Obama considered his legacy, he knew that a major foreign policy achievement would be paramount in the eyes of analysts and opinion leaders who would determine whether his tenure as the acknowledged head of the free world would be deemed a success.
He decided that a grand nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran would render his presidency with the greatest possible dispensation of accolades. By reaching so high, he hoped to be seen as the very embodiment of a leader of vision and courage. It mattered not that the Islamic Republic of Iran is regarded as the world’s foremost purveyor of terrorism by all of the leading Western intelligence agencies.
The president knew that Iran funded and planned terrorist attacks (sometimes through its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah) in Buenos Aires, Cyprus, Thailand, Bulgaria, Singapore, London, et al. He was aware that Americans were specifically targeted in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. And that as recently as 2011, the Iranian government was tied to a plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, Abdel al-Jubeir, in Washington DC by planting a bomb at a restaurant he was known to frequent.
Had the bombing not been thwarted, there almost certainly would have been numerous American casualties. President Obama was also well aware that former Iranian presidents Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad had openly called for the physical annihilation of both Israel and the United States on numerous occasions. He knew that the founder of the Islamic state, Ayatollah Khomeini had repeatedly done the same, and that the regime’s current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, had called for America’s destruction as recently as March 21st of this year during a speech in northeastern Iran.
According to Reuters: “When the crowd began shouting ‘death to America,” the ayatollah responded: “Of course yes, death to America, because America, is the original source of this pressure.” He knew that just days before the deal was signed, US Joint Chief of Staff General Martin Dempsey testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
According to Politico and CNN, he stated: “We should under no circumstances relieve pressure relative to ballistic missile capabilities and arms trafficking.” The president’s Defense Secretary Ashton Carter added that, “We want them to continue to be isolated as a military and limited in terms of the kinds of equipment and material they are able to procure.”
Carter added: “The reason that we want to stop Iran from having an ICBM program is that the ‘I’ in ICBM stands for intercontinental, which means having the capability of flying from Iran to the United States.” Incomprehensibly, the president has ignored the advice of his most senior military advisors. The treaty permits Iran to procure ballistic military technology on the international arms markets within a mere five to eight years.
President Obama also knew that the United Nations Committee on Iran Sanctions reported on June 1, 2015 that, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has continued to deny the legitimacy of provisions of Security Council resolutions…: arms transfer activities by the Islamic Republic of Iran appear to have actively continued [emphasis mine]. In paragraph 16, the UN report states: Two practical measures concern possible military dimensions of past activities. The first relates to allegations of large-scale high explosives experimentation at Parchin.
The second relates to studies, reported in scientific publications, regarding neutron transport and associated modelling and calculations and their alleged application to compressed materials.”Paragraph 28 states: “Unlike every previous mandate, during the current mandate no transfers of conventional arms and related materiel by the Islamic Republic of Iran were reported to the Committee. The Panel however notes media reports pointing to continuing military support and alleged arms transfers to the Syrian Arab Republic, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and to Hezbollah and Hamas.”
Then in paragraph 29 comes the stunner: “The discrepancy between media reports of alleged arms transfers and the lack of reporting to the Committee [by the member states] could have a number of explanations, among those…a reluctance to report on the part of Member States.”
The committee then proceeds to show graphic evidence and photos of Iranian non-compliance with UN sanctions. In paragraph 38 the committee reiterates (apparently, in case we missed it the first time): “… The current situation with reporting… could reflect a political decision by some Member States to refrain from reporting to avoid any possible negative impact on ongoing negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and E3+3 [emphasis mine].”
What the Panel of Experts is suggesting in paragraphs 28, 29 and 38 is that the Member States (the P5+1) are deliberately ignoring physical evidence that Iran is in direct contravention of UN sanctions so that a deal can be signed, apparently at any cost.
Logic would dictate that if the P5+1 states are ignoring gross Iranian violations before a deal is even reached, how much more likely will the Member States be to do the same after the deal is signed?
Some of the most salient weaknesses of the P5+1 Iran are:
1. Iran can continue to enrich uranium with diminishing restrictions during the next several years.
2. The development of missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warheads are not even addressed.
3. Research and development of faster centrifuges can continue unimpeded.
4. The deal will lift virtually all sanctions on the program in ten to fifteen years.
5. Within a few months almost all UN sanctions will be removed including those imposed to reduce terrorism. EU sanctions will be lifted by December 15.
6. There is no mention of Iran’s terrorist activities or regional weapons proliferation.
7. No mention that the deal is subject to actions by the US Congress.
8. The Iranians are not held accountable for past violations including the construction of secret nuclear facilities.
9. But it is on the subject of inspections where we really go through the looking glass and lose any semblance of reason. Snap inspections of suspicious nuclear sites are expressly forbidden.
Upon request, Iran will be permitted a minimum of twenty-four days before inspectors can enter such a facility. (Every marijuana dealer in the country has to be wondering why their abodes can be inspected immediately upon the issuance of a warrant, but a rogue regime is given time to “clean-up” suspicious facilities concerning marginally more significant matters such as nuclear proliferation!)
Icarus, of Greek legend, in an attempt to escape from Crete fashioned a pair of wings constructed of wax. His father, Daedalus, warning him of complacency and hubris, specifically instructed his son not to fly too close to the sun. As Icarus soared skyward, he sensed success and glory.
Throwing caution to the wind he flies too high, whereupon the wings melt and he falls into the sea. But unlike Icarus who sought personal glory, placing only himself at risk, President Obama in his quest for a grand historical legacy, is taking us all along for the ride. Only now it’s toward a nuclear sun.