Trump-Iraqi PM meeting could mean changes for US in Iraq and Syria

Trump has vowed to end America’s “endless wars” and he may want to leave one of these countries before the election. The meeting was thus of great importance.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
US Army soldiers keep watch on the US embassy compound in Baghdad, Iraq January 1, 2020 (photo credit: DOD/LT. COL. ADRIAN WEALE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
US Army soldiers keep watch on the US embassy compound in Baghdad, Iraq January 1, 2020
(photo credit: DOD/LT. COL. ADRIAN WEALE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi went to Washington for a unique meeting with US President Donald Trump this past week, amid daily rocket attacks on bases where US forces are present in Iraq. This meeting comes amid continued pressure by Iran, Russia, Turkey and the Syrian regime against US forces in Syria.
Trump has vowed to end America’s “endless wars,” and he may want to leave one of these countries before the election. The meeting was thus of great importance.
The US president told reporters that US troops be leaving shortly, but stressed that “If Iran should do anything, we will be there to help the Iraqi people.”
He declined to lay out a timetable for a full withdrawal.
Trump indicated that the US is “down to a very small number of soldiers in Iraq now.” This appears to be a win for his administration, which is stressing that it has defeated ISIS entirely in Iraq and Syria. However, that isn’t the full picture on the ground. ISIS is still killing people everyday, including high profile assassinations of Iraqi soldiers and recently also of a Russian officer.
But the US can say that when it comes to the mission of defeating the ISIS “caliphate” that it succeeded last year. Trump’s question has been what the US is continuing to do in Iraq and Syria.
The White House meeting appeared to indicate that the main goal now is oil deals in both countries. An oil deal with a US company in Syria could mean that the US has a reason to stay to “secure the oil” as Trump has said he is willing to do. If the US leaves it will cause instability. Trump’s cryptic comments about making decisions “fairly soon” indicate the US may make new moves in the region. “We have been taking our troops out of Iraq fairly rapidly” he also said.
We know that in the last six months, amid Iran tensions, the US withdrew from six bases and posts in Iraq, concentrating forces near Erbil and at two bases near Baghdad. But rocket attacks persist, almost daily, against the US embassy, a US complex near the airport and Camp Taji. No US soldiers have been killed since March.
CENTCOM has said that Iran is deterred from larger attacks, but the US is shifting resources to focus on the Iran threat. That means Patriot missiles and air defense have been sent.
In Syria the footprint is even lighter with hundreds of US soldiers east of the Euphrates and also at a lonely base near Tanf. Recently, the US met with Syrian tribes to try to assuage concerns they have. The goal is to use only a few soldiers to keep the peace with the much larger Kurdish-backed Syrian Democratic Forces doing all the heavy lifting, using the 80,000 or so fighters the US helped train in Syria.
This is a successful war, not an endless war. But Trump is keen on drawdowns so he can say he accomplished the mission. Yet he doesn’t want to rock the boat as he did last October. That means the US may be nearing a new crossroads moment in both Iraq and Syria. The meeting with Kadhimi was symbolic of that moment.