Were Israel not in the midst of a war in Gaza, were hundreds of thousands of soldiers not literally putting their lives on the line to defend the country, were millions of their relatives and friends not consumed with anxiety, worried about their loved ones’ well-being, the upcoming week would have been a week of government chest-thumping.
It would have been a week of inflated claims of successes across a whole spectrum of spheres: diplomacy, economy, and security.
Why? Because next Friday, December 29, will mark one year to the swearing-in of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s sixth government.
In normal times, one-year anniversaries are typically occasions when governments boast about all their accomplishments – all governments, regardless of whether those accomplishments are real or imagined. The self-congratulation of governments on their first-year anniversaries is almost a national ritual.
But these are far from normal times, and – if polls showing that the country would give this government the boot if only given the chance – the country does not see the establishment of this government 52 weeks ago as any reason to celebrate. And that is an understatement.
According to an Israel Democracy Institute poll released this week, 69% of the public, including 51.5% of the respondents who consider themselves right-wing, wanted to see elections held immediately after the war.
Opposition head Yair Lapid thinks there is no reason to wait even that long, and in a Ynet interview this week said that democracies can hold elections in the midst of war – he noted how the British Parliament ousted Neville Chamberlain and replaced him with Winston Churchill in 1940 as World War II raged.
Given the war with Hamas and the unprecedented internal division that preceded it as a result of the judicial reform, it seems for many in this traumatized country as though this government has been in power for much longer. The war itself has jumbled many people’s sense of time. But, even if it feels to many a lot longer, Israel’s 37th government has only been in power for a year.
One year.
Reflecting on the past year
LOOKING BACK today at Netanyahu’s speech in the Knesset on December 29, 2022, and his statement a few hours later before the cabinet held its inaugural first meeting, feels akin to looking at the photo album of a wedding whose promise soured early on: hopes burst, aspirations shattered, and pledges left unfulfilled.
The first striking element when looking at the clip of Netanyahu addressing the Knesset a year ago is that the tone of those first 10 months of the government – before October 7 changed everything – was set when the heckling began after he uttered the first innocuous sentence of the post-introductory part of his speech: “The new government today embarks on its way in the 75th year of Israel’s independence.”
Already then, the shouting and jeering filled the hall, much as it did a year and a half earlier when Naftali Bennett became prime minister and Netanyahu’s Likud barely let him get a word out.
Already then, on December 29, the rhythmic chanting that would hound Netanyahu for months and is bound to continue echoing after the war, commenced in the plenum. Opposition MKs repeatedly chanted “weak, weak,” highlighting their perception of Netanyahu yielding to the demands of his coalition partners. Within a few weeks “weak, weak” would morph into the resounding cry of “shame, shame” at anti-judicial reform protests around the country. At that initial Knesset session with the new government, the course had already been determined.
Netanyahu – during a moment of heckling – chided his political opponents for not accepting the will of the people.
“I hear the lamentations from the opposition about the end of the state, the end of democracy,” Netanyahu said.
“But to lose an election is not the end of democracy, it is the essence of democracy. Democracies are judged first of all by the willingness of the losing side to accept the decision of the majority. In an organized democracy, the rules of the game are respected.”
Talk about foreshadowing what was to come in the months ahead.
IN HIS 18-minute address, a good part of it interrupted by opposition heckling and catcalls, and later in his opening statement to the cabinet, Netanyahu enumerated four main goals for his government.
What is striking in retrospect about both the statement and his speech is that the prime minister mentioned neither Hamas and Gaza nor judicial reform in either of those appearances. The two issues that have altered the country, that have dominated the last 12 months, were left out of celebratory remarks he gave ushering in his new government.
“We have four main goals,” Netanyahu told his cabinet. “First of all, stop Iran. This is an existential question. We, first of all, take care of existence and security.
“Second, to restore security and governance within the State of Israel,” he said. “The third thing, take care of the cost of living and the housing crisis. The fourth thing, and I believe it is also within reach, is to dramatically expand the circle of peace.”
Again, no word of judicial reform, which his justice minister would introduce a little over a week later, and which would divide the country in a way never seen before, providing Hamas – which, according to reports, had been planning the October 7 attack well in advance – with what it believed was the perfect time to hit: a country split and in disarray, with reserve pilots threatening not to serve, and political leaders casting aspersions on the generals.
In his speech, Netanyahu did mention the country’s security situation, saying that he had ushered in the quietest period in Israel’s history.
“Knesset members, I am proud of the huge achievements we have had until now: the peace accords we brought, the gas we extracted from the sea that is turning Israel into an independent energy power, the vaccines which took Israel out of the corona crisis first, and the quietest security decade in our history.”
It all seems so long ago – especially the part about the quietest security decade in Israel’s history. When the various committees of inquiry begin their work when the war ends, this assertion will be challenged. True, statistically it may have been the quietest security decade in Israel’s history, but at what price? At the price of allowing Hamas to entrench itself in Gaza and letting Hezbollah position itself within mere meters of Metulla.
Everything looks different now. Sure, it was a quiet decade, and in bringing it up, Netanyahu was underscoring his image as “Mr. Security.” However, was it smart to sanctify quiet over directly addressing security challenges as they arose? Yes, it was a quiet decade. But was it quiet because the threats were dealt with, or was it quiet because the threats were swept under the rug and left for another day down the road?
And now that day has arrived.
Reflecting on Netanyahu’s words on the first day of his government, considering what we know today, offers a much different perspective. For example, looking at Israel today in the context of the four points Netanyahu highlighted is not overly encouraging.
Iran has not been deterred and is obviously carefully watching to see how Israel performs in Gaza. If Hamas is left standing after the war, Iran’s leaders could justifiably ask itself: Can a country that cannot destroy a terrorist organization on its borders demolish our nuclear program 2,000 kilometers away?
The war has done something else with regard to Iran as well: it has diverted attention, forced the world to look elsewhere – at Gaza – while Iran continues to move ahead on its nuclear program. According to some experts, it could now – if it so decided – make enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb within a week.
Goals two and three were not met before the war – lowering prices and enhancing governance – and if anything, the war will make matters worse on both those issues.
And as far as “dramatically expanding the circle of peace,” that hope – at least in the short term – seems dashed, as the images aired from Gaza are having a sharply negative impact on Arab public opinion toward Israel. Saudi leaders may still want to reach an accommodation with Israel, but for the short term, they will be influenced by public opinion, which is currently in no mood for such a step.
But Netanyahu’s words at that Knesset session a year ago are not the only ones that – in retrospect – seem so cut off from the reality as we understand it now. Outgoing prime minister Lapid also spoke with words that now seem divorced from the reality as it has emerged.
“In the security sphere, the last year and a half were the quietest in the Gaza border communities for the last 15 years,” he said. “We implemented a policy of no tolerance to inflammable balloons or any rocket fire from Gaza.”He continued: “Last August we embarked on Operation Breaking Dawn against the Islamic Jihad terror threat – one of the fastest, most effective, and deadly campaigns Israel ever carried out. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad leadership was thwarted without Israel suffering even one fatality.”
Except, as is becoming clear now, it was all a ruse, part of Hamas’s web of deception, lulling Israel into thinking that the true threat was from Islamic Jihad, and that Hamas sought only quiet and accommodation. In other words, that it was deterred.
“We are handing over to you a state in excellent condition, with a strong economy, improved security capability and strong deterrence, and an international standing among the best here ever,” Lapid said, addressing Netanyahu. “Try not to destroy it.”
That was then, just one year ago.