In thinking through the “day after,” Israel must take into account new interrelated geopolitical realities that will likely emerge from the war.
Post-two-state solution
The Gaza war put a decisive end to the two-state solution. This is not due to Hamas’s attack nor to its 72% support rate among Palestinians. It is also not due to Israeli and Palestinian rejection of the template. The two-state solution died due to Western reaction to October 7.
The two-state solution was based on the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state with various restrictions to accommodate Israel’s security needs, such as Israel controlling the Palestinian state’s airspace and border crossings.
The UN, the media, and Western politicians killed the two-state solution when they placed Hamas’s October 7 attacks in the context of the occupation of Gaza. They indoctrinated the world that Gaza was under occupation, in spite of the fact that Israel fully withdrew from Gaza in 2005.
If Gaza was under occupation, then certainly the future state of Palestine would be under occupation: There would be Israeli military presence, settlement blocks, and ample restrictions. Hence, global public opinion would utterly reject the idea of an “occupied” state of Palestine, which is the cornerstone of the two-state solution.
Some argue that the two-state solution was never a practical template but a utopian idea governed by the notion that the “peace process” is its own objective, irrespective of whether it actually led to peace. Yet even this utopian aspect of the two-state solution died due to the mainstreaming of anti-Zionist ideology by Western media and universities that occurred during the war. Why should the West force the Palestinians to give up their right to Tel Aviv?
Topping it all is the inconvenient fact that the two-state solution contributed to the Gaza war. Hamas’s control of Gaza was a direct result of Israel’s 2005 withdrawal carried out with the conviction that Gaza would never be part of a Jewish state in two-state solution.
While the demise of the two-state solution is a geopolitical earthquake, it pales in comparison to a bigger indirect consequence of the Gaza war.
Destabilization of Europe through anti-Zionism
The mainstreaming of anti-Zionism ideology during the Gaza war awoke the European question. As discussed in “Anti-Zionism is a threat to global stability” (Magazine, December 22), the motto “globalize the intifada” suddenly legitimized Muslim frustrations in Europe, and heightening fears that the next round of mass riots (like those in France last summer) could be inspired by October 7 and include rape, murder, and hostage-taking, especially since Muslim violence in Europe “did not happen in a vacuum,” to borrow UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’s words.
Many Europeans will inevitably resort to the rhetoric that Muslim violence in Europe is in reaction to Israel’s actions in Gaza. (Didn’t protesters burning cars in France in the summer of 2023 chant “Ceasefire now”?)
On the one hand, this is creating a dangerous environment for Jews outside of Israel; but on the other, it is accelerating the transformation of Judaism – which, in the long term, will make Jews safer.
Jews forced home to Judaism
Judaism is transforming. Zionism is becoming the primary vehicle for Jews and non-Jews to relate to Judaism – both positively and negatively. Thus, age-old opposition to Jews is now expressed through anti-Zionism. This reality, Judaism 3.0, is now getting broad recognition – ask any college student with a Jewish last name.
Jews, including those who bash Israel themselves, are now forced into their Judaism through Zionism, whether they like it or not, fulfilling Herzl’s vision that “Zionism is the return to Judaism, even before the return to the land of the Jews.”
Golden age of Israel
Israel will come out of this war at an unprecedented high point. The unity, the unshakable conviction of its people, and the strength of its economy all deepen the solid roots of Israeli Jewish society, which in turn allow political differences to be debated with passion.
This is in contrast to Europe, which is going through a process of value confusion (French police forcing a Muslim woman on a beach to remove a long-sleeved tunic is considered a demonstration of French liberalism), and to the US, which is experiencing increased polarization as it enters an election year.
The world is witnessing Israeli ingenuity and mutual assurance: civilian protest organizations turning overnight into supply operations for military equipment; luxury hotels being used to accommodate displaced families from the South and the North; thousands of volunteers cultivating unattended farmland; and heartwarming images of couples on dates, both carrying machine guns, having their bill paid for secretly by other customers. A nation coming together “as one man with one heart.”
Indeed, the thriving of Israel is a unique phenomenon in the history of civilization, inexplicable to traditional Western frameworks. This generates envy. Envy was a driving force in early 20th-century antisemitism, and it is a driving force in early 21st century anti-Zionism.
Imminent post-war assault on the Jewish state
The end of the two-state solution would lead to frustrations in the “conflict industry”: the United Nations, the European Union, NGOs, and the foreign press – whose representatives are known in Jerusalem for their lavish parties, high turnover, and insularity. This industry will fiercely oppose whatever present arrangement Israel plans for the “day after.”
Similarly, there will be a flurry of crimes-against-humanity “investigations” scrutinizing Israel’s past actions in the war – not just by the International Criminal Court, the UN, and Western governments trying to placate their Israel-bashing populace but also in the media and academia.
The third vector of post-war assault will come from a small but powerful group of American Jews who will be triggered by the emerging reality that Zionism is becoming the anchor of Judaism. Expect intensified “Israel is horrible’’ articles in the New York Times, as well as more mass funding of NGOs, PR firms, and fringe groups (Israeli “proud boys”) in an attempt to destabilize Israeli society and hijack legitimate Israeli protests and debates.
The Jewish state, attacked so brutally on October 7, is heading toward a different type of battle for its survival once the Gaza war is over.
The writer is author of Judaism 3.0 – Judaism’s Transformation to Zionism (Judaism–Zionism.com), and chair of the Judaism 3.0 Think Tank. For his geopolitical analysis, see: EuropeAndJerusalem.com
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