The more unrest intensifies in Iran, the harder it will be for the regime to launch missiles toward Israel, former Israeli Navy chief, V.-Adm. (res.) Eliezer Marom told 103 FM on Sunday.
“Most of their missiles use liquid fuel, and you cannot launch them from underground depots,” he said. “They have to move into the field, and that requires a fairly large convoy, including launchers and significant quantities of fuel.”
He added that movement on Iran’s roads is challenging, particularly amid internal conflict.
“It is hard to move without encountering flashpoints,” he said. “It then becomes difficult to launch from open areas. This makes it easier for the Americans to act on the matter.”
US targets may be a higher priority than Israel
According to Marom, Israel may not be Iran’s primary focus in the event of a missile attack.
“Not necessarily Israel,” he said. “They will certainly want to launch toward US military bases in the Middle East.”
Asked how the United States should support Iranian protesters, Marom said the most significant concern should be Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
“It is possible that the current regime falls and is replaced by one led by the Revolutionary Guards,” he said. “After a regime collapse, there is always chaos, especially when no single leader unites the rebels. The crown prince is not exactly the leader of this revolution. It’s not like with Khomeini, when power was immediately transferred to him. That is not happening.”
Potential for Syria-like scenario
Marom warned that the aftermath of a regime collapse in Iran could mirror the situation in Syria.
“Consider how much weaponry and how many capabilities Iran has that endanger us,” he said. “I’m not sure we’re heading toward a regime that is all sweetness and light; a full democracy, and so on. It’s not clear whether the regime will fall, but if it does, it may resemble Syria. We need to ensure that large quantities of weapons don’t fall into the hands of those who might emerge as the sole rulers.”
Skepticism over US intentions
Marom expressed doubt regarding US threats and declarations about confronting Iran.
“I don’t think action is imminent,” he said. “We know Trump. He threatened Hamas, and nothing happened. In Venezuela, too, the situation remains unresolved. He moved Maduro from his place, but not a single American is in Venezuela right now.”
Israel should prioritize Lebanon, not Iran
Turning to Israel, Marom cautioned against rushing into conflict with Iran and said there were more urgent threats closer to home.
“Israel will not allow any monster to develop beyond its borders,” he said. “That’s how we operate in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. In the broader context, if we are to confront Iran, it would be better to first deal with Lebanon, and only afterward with Iran.”
At the same time, Marom pointed to a global issue that he believes is being overlooked.
“Behind the scenes, a storm is raging that no one is paying attention to, that is, the global struggle over oil,” he said. “What happened in Caracas is part of that battle. It started in Venezuela and continued with Iran’s shadow fleet. The Americans are increasingly seizing tankers flying the Russian flag.”
He warned that the situation carries “enormous explosive potential” and noted that it intersects with tensions over artificial intelligence between the US and China.