Striking Hamas in Doha: Qatar's duplicity, the Gulf's ambivalence, and Israel's evolving doctrine

Israel did something unprecedented on Tuesday: it struck Hamas leaders meeting in Doha, the capital of Qatar, the gas-rich Gulf emirate better known for gleaming skyscrapers, soccer stadiums, and hosting international conferences than for being a battlefield.

According to various reports, 15 Israeli fighter jets fired 10 precision-guided bombs on a Hamas conclave held to discuss Washington’s latest ceasefire proposal.

Even though the results remain murky – it was still unclear Thursday afternoon who was killed and whether Hamas’s leadership managed to escape – the strike was extraordinary for its location, its timing, and its message.

Here are four broad takeaways from this pivotal moment in Israel’s long war with Hamas.

The immediate global reaction was predictable: condemnation.

London, Berlin, and Paris – joined by other Western capitals – denounced the strike as a violation of Qatari sovereignty and called it “unacceptable,” while Qatar’s prime minister denounced it as “state terror.” Various commentators warned that the attack would plunge the region further into instability and chaos.

One of the most striking comments came from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who incredulously condemned Israel’s “flagrant violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Qatar.”

Yet it’s Israel – not Qatar – that Guterres slams. And to think there are still those who wonder why Israel pays little heed to what Guterres or the UN has to say.

The same chorus that roundly slammed Israel for a violation of Qatari sovereignty was oddly muted when the United States did precisely the same thing after September 11. A reminder: in May 2011, US Navy SEALs flew into Abbottabad, Pakistan, and killed Osama bin Laden – a blatant violation of Pakistani sovereignty. Yet the world cheered. No one accused Washington of terrorism; nobody convened emergency sessions of the UN to censure then-president Barack Obama.

Netanyahu seized on this blatant double standard in a video statement he released on Wednesday. He reminded the world that just as Americans vowed after 9/11 to hunt down Islamist terrorists wherever they may be, Israel promised to pursue the architects of October 7. And just as the US remembers 9/11, so, too, does Israel remember Oct. 7.

All those condemning Israel for the “disproportionate” carnage in Gaza would do well to remember that as a result of 9/11 the US initiated military actions that, according to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, directly killed an estimated 940,000 people, about half of them civilians, and caused up to 4.5 million indirect deaths, including from malnutrition and disease stemming from the post-9/11 wars.

Netanyahu’s message: the world is practicing hypocrisy when it applauds America for killing bin Laden in Pakistan but condemns Israel for going after Hamas’s henchmen in Doha. And he stressed that Israel, like America, will not be deterred from protecting its people.

For years, Qatar has played an elaborate double game. On the one hand, it projects itself as the ultimate mediator: able to talk to all sides – Israel and Hamas, the US and the Taliban, Sunni and Shia factions in Lebanon – thereby brokering ceasefire agreements. On the other hand, it bankrolls Hamas to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, provides its leadership with villas in Doha, and shields them with diplomatic cover.

Israel’s strike blew up that balancing act. Quite literally. The timing was especially humiliating for Doha since Hamas’s leadership was meeting precisely to discuss US President Donald Trump’s latest ceasefire proposal, a process Qatar was supposed to be shepherding. How can you mediate a deal between Hamas and Israel while simultaneously serving as the terrorist group’s landlord, financier, and patron?

Qatar’s credibility as a neutral broker – never strong in Jerusalem to begin with – now lies in ruins. Netanyahu sharpened the point by publicly demanding that Doha either expel or prosecute Hamas terrorists. His challenge forces uncomfortable questions across the region: how many other states are knowingly and openly providing sanctuary for mass murderers?

Qatar has long been the Brotherhood’s home base in the Gulf, giving it money, shelter, and a platform through its Al Jazeera network, widely seen as the Brotherhood’s megaphone. If Washington criminalizes the Brotherhood, Doha’s double game becomes unsustainable.

What it has long sold as leverage – ties to Hamas and other Brotherhood offshoots – would suddenly be recast as liability, exposing it to sanctions, diplomatic stigma, and awkward questions about how America’s closest Gulf security partner can also bankroll movements the US defines as terrorists.

Some analysts argue that Qatar may now drift closer to Russia and China. Perhaps. But considering Moscow’s dismal performance in Ukraine, it’s unlikely Doha sees its long-term security in Russian or even Chinese hands. The United States, for all its frustrations, still provides Qatar with its security umbrella, a priceless umbrella Doha is unlikely to fold up because of a pinpoint strike on Hamas terrorists sheltered in its midst.

Officially, the Arab world rallied to Qatar’s side. The Gulf Cooperation Council issued stern statements. Arab commentators called Israel’s strike reckless. The ritual denunciations were as swift as they were predictable.

Notably, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed paid Doha a solidarity visit on Wednesday, as did leaders from Jordan and Kuwait. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was expected to visit on Thursday.

On the surface, this marks a dramatic shift from 2017-2021, when the UAE and the Saudis led a blockade of Qatar over its backing of Islamist movements and close ties with Iran. But appearances can be deceptive: beneath the solidarity, many in the Gulf were surely pleased to see Qatar knocked down a peg, since its embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood has long rankled its neighbors, who see the Brotherhood as an existential threat to their monarchies.

Nevertheless, such an audacious strike on another Gulf state could not go without strong condemnation, the type of condemnation they did not level when Israel attacked Iran. Furthermore, rallying around a “brotherly” Gulf state against “Israeli aggression” plays well for them domestically.

The UAE, in particular, will be worth watching. Abu Dhabi has its own bitter memory of Israeli operations: the 2010 assassination of Hamas senior official Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel room set back Israel-UAE ties a couple of years. Netanyahu surely weighed that precedent before green-lighting the Doha strike. Evidently, he judged that the benefits of eliminating Hamas leaders outweighed the risk of alienating Gulf partners.

One of the most novel elements of the Doha strike was not the target but Israel’s posture. For decades, Israel waged a shadow war against its enemies: assassinations, cyberattacks, sabotage – all shrouded in ambiguity. The 2010 Dubai hit was never officially acknowledged. Israeli officials would coyly refer to “foreign reports.”

Doha was different. Within minutes, Netanyahu took responsibility. Israel even gave a name to the operation – Operation Summit of Fire – and anonymous senior officials provided details. This was not business as usual.

Some might say that Israel has acknowledged strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, so this is not something new. But that is different. Israel is obviously at war with the Houthis. That is not the case with Qatar.

So why the shift from ambiguity to responsibility?

First, to shield the United States. Qatar is a major non-NATO US ally that hosts the largest American military base in the region. By immediately owning the strike, Israel ensured Washington was not blamed for an attack that unfolded in the shadow of its base.

Second, to project confidence. By declaring responsibility, Israel showed that it will not hide from its actions, nor will diplomatic fallout deter it. The message was clear: we can reach anywhere, and we will not be coy about it. What this means is that the era of plausible deniability may be ending, replaced by a doctrine of transparent deterrence.

This shift carries risks. Transparency makes de-escalation harder: adversaries who might otherwise have stayed quiet can feel forced to retaliate once an attack is openly acknowledged. For instance, Israel withheld responsibility for years for its 2007 strike on a Syrian nuclear facility, largely to avoid pushing then-president Bashar Assad into escalating merely to save face.

Yet there are also benefits to taking responsibility. It removes ambiguity. It clarifies lines of responsibility. And it may reinforce deterrence: Hamas leaders, Hezbollah commanders, and Iranian generals now know Israel will not only find them but also openly take credit for it – erasing doubt and magnifying the psychological pressure.

The question is whether this boldness heralds a new doctrine or was a one-off. If it is the new norm, Israel has traded deniability for a dangerous kind of transparency – one that removes ambiguity but could also make the region more combustible.

Israel’s strike in Doha was another episode – a unique one – in its long war with Hamas. At the same time, it was also a statement about hypocrisy in the international system, about Qatar’s duplicity, about the Gulf’s ambivalence, and about Israel’s own evolving doctrine.

Whether this moment proves to be a turning point or just another dramatic headline will depend on what follows. Will Hamas’s operational capacity truly be degraded? Will Qatar recalibrate its double game? Will the Gulf quietly welcome Qatar’s humiliation, or will solidarity harden? And will Israel continue to own its extraterritorial strikes openly, reshaping the rules of the regional game?

On September 11, as Americans marked the day of their most profound trauma, Netanyahu reminded Israelis that they, too, have their own September 11: October 7. And just as America vowed to pursue its enemies wherever they hide, so, too, will Israel.

The Doha strike was that vow in action – whatever the results.