Israel’s military manpower crisis is expected to deepen unless legislation extending mandatory service advances separately from the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) draft bill, as the IDF faces a widening gap between wartime operational needs and the number of soldiers available to meet them.
Defense officials raised a red flag on Sunday that by the end of the year, units could face a severe manpower shortage, with an emphasis on a lack of thousands of regular-service combat soldiers.
The issue has become more urgent as the haredi conscription bill returned to the Knesset agenda on Sunday, ahead of its final readings and amid a coalition crisis over a possible vote to dissolve the Knesset.
While the haredi draft bill has become one of the central political fights threatening Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, defense officials have also pushed for a separate extension of mandatory service, arguing that the current model no longer matches the demands placed on the military since October 7.
The IDF is operating across multiple arenas while also dealing with heavy casualties, high reserve use, and growing erosion among both regular and reserve forces. Many reservists who once served far more limited periods have been called up repeatedly since the war began, with annual reserve burdens now reaching roughly 80 to 100 days for some combat soldiers.
Regular soldiers, meanwhile, are spending more time in operational employment and less time training, leaving units with some combat soldiers remaining almost continuously on the line rather than rotating between operational duty, training, and recovery.
Timing gap leads to staffing concerns in combat formations
One of the main concerns centers on the first cohorts enlisted under the shorter service framework. Soldiers who enlisted in July 2024 are due to complete 30 months of service in January 2027, while replacement manpower may only reach units later in the cycle.
Without a legislative fix, that timing gap could create recurring drops in unit staffing, especially in combat formations already stretched by the war. The January 2027 drop could amount to nearly 4,000 soldiers at once, before recovering roughly two months later.
The concern is that without legislation soon, the shortage will become harder to manage and could disrupt the army’s personnel pipeline. The IDF has sought to advance legislation extending mandatory service, but the measure has become entangled with the politically explosive haredi conscription bill.
Critics of the haredi bill argue that its current outline would not significantly increase enlistment, while several coalition lawmakers have said they would oppose it in its present form.
The manpower pressure is not only a matter of enlistment numbers, but of sustainability. Higher motivation and increased combat recruitment since the war have not been enough to ease the burden across the force, as casualties, attrition, expanded missions, and repeated reserve call-ups continue to absorb much of the added manpower. The result is a military that has grown in certain areas, but remains under strain in the units carrying the main operational load.
The emerging defense position is that no single measure will solve the shortage. Extending mandatory service, expanding the reserve framework, increasing haredi enlistment, widening combat recruitment among women and other populations, and building limited permanent-service models are all being treated as parts of the same manpower answer.
The IDF is increasingly relying on women in combat roles, with female combat enlistment rising from 547 in 2012 to more than 5,200 in 2025.
Without movement on those tracks, the burden is expected to remain concentrated on the same regular and reserve soldiers already carrying much of the war effort.
Keshet Neev contributed to this report.