Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party is plunging deep below the electoral threshold, while the coalition bloc has climbed by two additional seats, according to a Maariv poll.
The poll comes amid growing uncertainty regarding a plan to occupy Gaza, an impasse on hostage talks, and ongoing protests to free the hostages and end the war.
According to the poll, Gantz's press conference last weekend calling to form a temporary emergency government to free the hostages ended up hurting him politically, with the proposal being met with criticism by the opposition and outright ignored by senior Likud officials.
According to the Maariv poll, the Democrats party led by Yair Golan lost a seat. Parties led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett also each lost a seat. By contrast, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu gained two seats, with Liberman having come out strongly against Gantz's initiative but also trying to coordinate with other opposition leaders.
Among the coalition members, the Likud gained two seat,s and the Religious Zionist Party is teetering on the edge.
However, another possible scenario examined by Maariv found that a reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel would win eight seats, giving the opposition a slight majority.
Overall, the seat breakdown is as follows:
- Likud - 24 seats
- Bennett party - 21 seats
- Yisrael Beytenu - 10 seats
- The Democrats - nine seats
- Shas - eight seats
- Otzma Yehudit - eight seats
- Hendel-led reservist party - eight seats
- Eisenkot party - seven seats
- Yesh Atid - seven seats
- United Torah Judaism - seven seats
- Ra'am - six seats
- Hadash-Ta'al - five seats
- Religious Zionist Party - four seats
- Balad - zero
- Blue and White - zero
Maariv was not the only one projecting 24 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, with Channel 12 giving the same number.
The same poll also agreed that the Religious Zionist Party barely passes the threshold, while Blue and White fails to cross over.
A different outcome
However, the numbers differ elsewhere, with a Channel 12 poll giving the following distribution:
- Likud - 24 seats
- Bennett party - 20 seats
- Eisenkot party - 12 seats
- The Democrats - 11 seats
- Yisrael Beytenu - 10 seats
- Shas - eight seats
- Yesh Atid - seven seats
- United Torah Judaism - seven seats
- Otzma Yehudit - seven seats
- Hadash-Ta'al - five seats
- Ra'am - five seats
- Religious Zionist Party - four seats
- Blue and White - zero seats
- Balad - zero seats
With this scenario, the opposition has 60 seats, the coalition has 50, and the Arab parties have 10.
The situation changes, however, if former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen enters the fray.
Following his announcement that he should be the prime minister, Channel 12's polling examined the possibility of him entering politics.
Should this happen, Likud still gets 24 seats, Eisenkot still gets 12, and Blue and White still fails to pass the threshold. However, the Cohen-led party would make it into Knesset with five seats, pushing the Religious Zionist Party out of the Knesset and making Bennett drop to 19 seats.
In this scenario, the opposition would win 59 seats, the coalition would only get 46, and the Arab parties would still have 10, with Cohen still being a political wild card.
What do Israelis think about the protests to free the hostages?
Channel 12's survey also found that nearly half (45%) of all Israelis think the nationwide protests are harming any attempts to free the hostages. Twenty-three percent think the protests help, another 23% think they do nothing at all, and 9% didn't have an answer.
Among coalition voters, a vast majority (80%) think the protests harm efforts to free the hostages.
This poll also found that nearly half (49%) of all Israelis think the government is indifferent to the will of the public and to the fate of the hostages.
The Maariv survey was carried out between Wednesday and Thursday, among 500 adult respondents, both Jews and Arabs. The maximum sampling error is +/-4.4%. The survey was conducted for Maariv by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with the online respondent panel Panel4All.