Who's pulling the strings? Haredi parties draft bill tactics ahead of Iran war - analysis

In fact, the coming weeks may mark the culmination of a political collision the country has been heading toward since July, as a bill to approve the highly controversial haredi draft law continues to advance at a rapid pace.

Shas spokesperson Asher Medina said the law would pass within two weeks during a Wednesday interview on Kol Berama radio.

“God-willing, within two weeks, the law regulating Torah scholars will pass, and the arrests of yeshiva students, which is the most painful thing for us, will stop,” he said.

The IDF has warned of a manpower shortage and urgently called for more combat recruits after more than two years of war. Legislation to enforce conscription has been widely considered vital to the country’s security.

Critics of the draft bill argue that the revised outline, led by MK Boaz Bismuth (Likud), fails to enforce haredi conscription and serves primarily as a political measure to appease haredi parties.

On Thursday, the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee convened yet another marathon meeting, beginning in the morning and stretching into the evening, as lawmakers seek to fast-track the legislation to bring it for its final readings in the plenum.

"The people marching here with me have done more than 400 days of reserve duty, and in the Knesset, they are organizing draft evasion. We will not allow this to pass," Lapid said.

Timing is of the essence, and the reason ties in with elections, due to the upcoming 2026 state budget vote in the Knesset

If the state budget is not approved by the end of March, at the close of the fiscal year, the Knesset will automatically dissolve, and elections will be called.

Shas warned it would not vote in favor of the 2026 state budget unless the draft law is passed, in a statement from Medina last week.

Meanwhile, the Council of Torah Sages,  which governs the Agudat Yisrael faction of United Torah Judaism, convened on Wednesday evening to discuss its position on the draft bill.

The meeting was held in Bnei Brak and attended by two senior Degel Hatorah spiritual leaders, Rabbi Dov Lando and Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch, who conducted consultations on the bill.

Amid current escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, it is hard to forget the last political crisis involving the haredi parties, which unfolded just a day before Israel struck Iran, leading to a 12-day war.

On June 12, the day before Israel’s attack, a preliminary reading of a bill to dissolve the Knesset was brought to a vote.

This was widely seen as the climax of a political showdown between Netanyahu and the haredi parties.

Much like the current standoff, the haredi parties at the time threatened to vote with the opposition to dissolve the Knesset unless they reached a satisfactory agreement on an earlier version of the draft bill.

Throughout the night before the vote, the spiritual leaders convened, and favorable amendments were later introduced to the legislation.

Those revisions ultimately led the haredi parties to vote with the coalition, despite their earlier threats. It was later revealed that they were able to extract concessions from MK Yuli Edelstein, who was then leading the version of the bill.

However, that arrangement ultimately collapsed in July, when the haredi parties did not comply with that version of the bill as well and left the government, leading to Edelstien's ousting.

Only now are the implications of that move fully emerging, as the coalition faces major legislation, which requires full coalition support.

Not only is the government contending with the state budget vote, but the opposition is also seeking to bring forward the bill to disperse the Knesset.

By law, six months must pass before a dispersal bill can be brought again to a vote, a period that has now elapsed since the day before the Iran strike.

Speaking at a Knesset press conference last week, Lapid said the bill would be brought to a vote soon.

The July attacks in Iran may now seem distant, and the current situation reflects a different US-Iran dynamic. However, the haredi parties’ approach appears largely unchanged.

On Thursday, Netanyahu appointed Yisrael Eichler of United Torah Judaism as deputy communications minister, as part of political arrangements aimed at advancing the draft bill.

As the coming weeks unfold, shifting dynamics to advance the draft bill will likely reveal who is really pulling the strings.