Yamina's staged plan to the premiership - analysis

Why the beginning of next week is when Yamina leader Naftali Bennett will take his long-awaited steps to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

By GIL HOFFMAN
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chats with Naftali Bennett in the Knesset (photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chats with Naftali Bennett in the Knesset
(photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
Yamina leader Naftali Bennett dreamed as a child of becoming prime minister.
Bennett supported Benjamin Netanyahu when he was prime minister the first time, and he even named his son Yonatan after Netanyahu’s brother, who was killed in the Entebbe rescue operation, a year before he became Netanyahu’s chief of staff in 2006.
When he entered politics in 2013, Bennett’s goal was to eventually succeed Netanyahu and become prime minister. But he never intended to oust him.
Bennett is aware of how much voters on the Right respect Netanyahu and how ousting him could leave an indelible scar on his political resume. He knows what it is like to be a right-wing voter on the sidelines looking in and admiring Netanyahu, because that’s what he was before.
That is why Bennett has had to be very careful in how he has proceeded politically over the past few weeks.
Before Hamas fired missiles at Jerusalem on May 10 and Operation Guardian of the Walls began, Bennett was two days away from finalizing a government with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid that would have replaced Netanyahu. A decisive meeting of Bennett and Lapid with Ra’am (United Arab List) head Mansour Abbas that had been set for right around when the missiles were fired, was postponed.
Three days later, Bennett told Lapid that forming a government of change with Ra’am  was off the table, in a step that The Jerusalem Post reported exclusively was what Yamina sources called “a move to alleviate pressure.”
The Yamina officials already said that weekend that Bennett would consider all coalition possibilities before the June 2 deadline for Lapid to form a government, including returning to Lapid, or joining Netanyahu if he could deliver the defectors from the change camp to afford him the majority needed to form a coalition.
During the war, no significant negotiations were held with either side. When it ended, Bennett made his choice, which was unsurprisingly to keep kicking the can down the road as long as could, and continue playing on both sides of the fence. After Lapid’s mandate expires, there would be three weeks in which any MK could try to build a coalition and this could have been a opportunity for Bennett to give it a go.
But at Monday’s Yesh Atid faction meeting, Lapid removed that option by revealing that he would pursue a dispersal of the Knesset if he could not form a government. Lapid said the move would prevent Netanyahu forming a government. Yesh Atid officials said it was also intended to place the blame for a fifth election firmly on Bennett’s shoulders if he were to decide not to join Lapid.  
The real reason, however, was to expedite Bennett’s decision by removing the possibility of him receiving the third mandate from the Knesset and force him to decide during Lapid’s mandate.
The deadline for Bennett’s decision is not Wednesday, when the mandate ends, but Monday, because to approve the formation of the government, Bennett would need the support of at least six of Yamina’s seven MKs.
There are MKs and candidates further down the Yamina list who would submit their resignations to Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin, in order to avoid being part of the coalition but would not prevent Bennett from forming the government.
The resignations of the MKs and the candidates require 48 hours to take effect, making Monday decision day. Bennett’s number two, MK Ayelet Shaked, made clear on Wednesday that she would remain loyal to Bennett, so her options are either taking a bolstered Interior portfolio or quitting and not blocking Bennett’s rise to the premiership.
At Wednesday’s faction meeting, Bennett attacked Netanyahu and laid the groundwork for forming an anti-Netanyahu government. Shaked still wants to give Netanyahu a last chance over the weekend, leaving a very narrow window for a government to be formed, and Bennett could decide to call Lapid’s bluff and try to get the extra three weeks.
Bennett will have to proceed even more cautiously when he finally takes his reluctant steps to oust the prime minister he admired as he tried to achieve his childhood dream.