As concerns rose overnight about Iran tensions, one place where alarm bells were going off was in Iraq. Iraq is home to numerous pro-Iranian militias.
These groups, collectively known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, are made up of tens of thousands of men organized into dozens of different units.
Some of the units are very close to Iran and have carried out attacks for many years, targeting US troops, as well as US partners in the region, such as the autonomous Kurdistan region.
The militias have attacked US troops in the past. They have used drones to attack Israel over the last year and a half in the wake of the October 7 attack. This is why the tensions with Iran are now drawing the spotlight back to Iraq.
Iran has increased its role in Iraq over the last two decades. It used the power vacuum that emerged after the US invasion in 2003 to arm and support militias. These groups grew in power as US forces left Iraq.
Eventually, in 2014, after the ISIS invasion of Iraq, the militias became officially recognized as a paramilitary arm of Iraq’s government. Members of the militias had attacked US forces between 2003 and 2011, and they also engaged in sectarian killings of Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and others.
Beginning in 2019, the militias began attacks on US forces and posts, often using 107mm Iranian-made rockets. The US withdrew from many areas in Iraq in 2020 and also retaliated for the attacks by killing IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani and also killing militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the head of Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia.
Iraq militias serve Iranian interests
Iran views Iraq as its “near abroad,” basically a country that it controls and influences. It views the militias as a key part of this project. The militias serve its interests and control parts of Iraq. This is why, whenever there are tensions between Iran and the US or others, the militias are operationalized to carry out Iran’s policies.
As Iran considers any response to issues it faces in the region, it could try to inflame Iraq. It has done this in the past, and this is the Iranian playbook. Iran often prefers this to direct confrontation. Iran will be more wary of threatening the Gulf. It prefers using militias, which can then be blamed, so that Tehran is not held accountable.