The US is facing new challenges in Iraq as its options narrow amid Iranian-backed militia attacks.
Recently, the attacks appear to have become bolder, targeting US diplomatic sites and facilities. Video from an attack drone’s camera was published as it flew over a US facility.
The US embassy in Baghdad has been warning US citizens in Iraq about threats since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28.
“Iran-aligned terrorist militias have incited and carried out random attacks against US citizens and US-linked targets throughout Iraq, including in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. US citizens should depart Iraq immediately,” the US embassy said.
The Iraqi militias are probing for weaknesses and warning the US about more attacks.
Communist leader Vladimir Lenin is reputed to have said: “You probe with bayonets: If you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw.”
The Iranian-backed militias are abiding by that dictum. They continue to push.
US weighs evacuating Iraq as militia attacks intensify
This puts the US in a bind. The US is carrying out an air war against Iran. While thousands of US Marines have been dispatched as part of a Marine Expeditionary Unit, it will take them time to arrive in the area.
The US could evacuate its facilities in Iraq. It could also evacuate Baghdad and move personnel to the autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq, which is pro-American and has a large, new US consulate.
The US has moved most of its personnel out of the rest of Iraq in recent years. It’s not clear how many remain.
“Iran-aligned terrorist militias have repeatedly attacked the International Zone in central Baghdad,” the US embassy said. “The International Zone remains closed, with limited exceptions. Repeated attacks have also occurred in the area surrounding Erbil International Airport and the US Consulate General in Erbil. Do not attempt to proceed to the US Embassy in Baghdad or the US Consulate in Erbil, given the ongoing security risks.”
“Do not travel to Iraq for any reason,” it said. “If you are in Iraq, leave now.”
“Iran-aligned terrorist militias have also attacked hotels frequented by foreigners and other facilities linked to the United States throughout Iraq, including in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region,” the US embassy said. “US citizens face a risk of kidnapping, and Americans have been specifically targeted. Iran-aligned terrorist militias may hinder the Iraqi authorities’ ability to respond effectively in emergencies.”
The Iranian-backed militias have shown off their recent capabilities with drones in Iraq. This illustrates how they appear prepared for a long war. They are closely linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and are taking orders from Tehran.
It appears they are also targeting the Gulf countries. They attacked the UAE consulate in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region. Furthermore, they would like to see the Iranian-backed Houthis enter the war.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) leader Qais al-Khazali said his militia intends to target the US. One of the leaders of Kataib Hezbollah, a Shi’ite militia operating in Iraq, was killed, Khazali said in a post.
In response, AAH said it condemned the “American-Zionist Alliance,” adding that the US and Israel have targeted the militias. A “volcano of rage” is coming that will strike at the US-Israeli alliance, AAH said.
Meanwhile, the militias continue to suffer losses from airstrikes. No group has taken responsibility for the strikes on the militias.
Nevertheless, it appears that the strikes are increasing. Militias in Nineveh plains linked to the 30th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have been targeted numerous times.
The PMF is an Iraqi paramilitary unit made up of militias linked to Iran. This unit is based near the Christian town of Bartella, but it is made up of a minority ethnic group called Shabaks.
Airstrikes have also targeted militias deployed near the Syrian border in Anbar province. This has included attacks on Kataib Hezbollah.
There are other developments. There have been airstrikes in Baghdad and other bombings, the Iraqi Justice Ministry has said. These appear to have also targeted the militias.
“Areas surrounding the Karkh Central Prison in Baghdad have come under repeated strikes over the past few days, with some projectiles landing dangerously close to the facility that houses high-risk inmates, Iraq’s Justice Ministry said on Sunday,” Kurdistan Region-based news channel Rudaw Media Network reported.
“Justice Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Laibi said in a statement that the strikes intensified on Saturday evening, with six projectiles landing in the vicinity of the airport from 6 p.m. to midnight. The attacks near the prison ‘raise concerns about the impact on the security of the facility, which houses highly dangerous terrorist inmates,’ read the statement.”
As the militias threaten US diplomatic sites and facilities in Baghdad, the airstrikes are also hitting the militias in Baghdad, essentially extending the Iran war to Baghdad and the rest of Iraq.
In recent days, there have been attacks reported on the US embassy in Baghdad, Camp Victory, and the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near Baghdad International Airport.
The militias have suffered new losses in strikes on their sites in Salahaddin province on Saturday, and also in the Arrasat area of Baghdad, where militias are apparently located.
As the conflict expands in Iraq, the US appears to have very narrow options on what to do next. Airstrikes likely won’t defeat the militias.
In the past, militia leaders have been targeted. Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed by a US drone strike in January 2020. He was killed alongside IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.
None of the previous incidents, however, has completely stopped the militias. Kataib Hezbollah killed three American service members in Jordan in January 2024, for instance. It then stepped back from attacks for a while.
The militias have carried out hundreds of attacks since 2019; however, since February 28, they have likely carried out a new round of more than 300 attacks.