Qatar was in a tough place on Wednesday as the Israel-Iran war stretched into its sixth day. It has close relations with Iran. Qatar is also a major non-NATO ally.
As such, Doha has often sought to act as an ostensibly neutral player when it comes to any tensions between the US and Iran. It did not mediate the recent talks; rather, Oman hosted the talks involving the Iranians and the US.
However, Qatar has played a key role as a mediator regarding the Gaza conflict. It hosts Hamas and portrays itself as playing a positive role in the negotiations regarding the hostages.
Doha did the same concerning the Taliban, hosting them and helping with discussions with the US, moves that allowed for the Taliban to return to power.
Therefore, Qatar potentially has a lot to lose if the conflict drags on or if the US intervenes against Iran. This is because Doha also hosts a substantial US military air base, known as al-Udeid.
In the past, during the conflict in Afghanistan, the US-based B-52 bomber jets were stationed at al-Udeid.
Qatar does not want to be put in a position where US aircraft might fly out of Doha for a confrontation with Iran.
According to reports, Qatar’s Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson, Amjad al-Ansari, has asserted that the Israel-Iran war is delaying hostage and ceasefire talks.
Since Israel began its strikes on Iran on Friday, the hostage talks have barely been mentioned in Israeli media. The Israel-Hamas War does not seem to be on the minds of most media outlets as the larger war unfolds.
Qatar has been issuing statements since Friday regarding its concerns about the war. For instance, Ansari has said that Qatar is hopeful about diplomacy being a path to resolving the crisis “in the region and beyond.”
“Qatar has been actively engaged in facilitating diplomatic solutions, particularly regarding tensions between Israel and Iran,” Doha said.
“Our communication with regional and international partners is ongoing. Currently, there are no direct threats to our energy production, and the situation remains stable, despite the recent reckless attack on the Pars gas field,” it continued.
“Our primary concern is ensuring the safety of personnel working with the international consortium in the North Pars Gas Field,” Qatar said.
It also spoke about “the necessity of halting Israeli hostilities against Iran and returning to the path of negotiations.”
Also on Friday, Qatar’s Prime Minister Muhammad bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said on X/Twitter that “as nations seek diplomatic solutions for peace in the Middle East, Israel’s actions continue to undermine the prospects for peace.”
They “put our people and global security and peace in imminent danger. The international community must stop these dangerous violations before it is too late,” he added.
As the war between Israel and Iran unfolds, it’s possible that Doha may lose out on influence in the region. US President Donald Trump appears to be ready to increase pressure on Tehran.
Other Gulf states will likely follow Trump’s lead. Qatar will not be able to do this because of its close ties with Tehran.
DOHA WILL want to position itself to mediate. It typically achieves this by claiming positive relations with both sides of various conflicts.
By hosting Hamas and the Taliban, this is how, for example, it became involved in the talks about Gaza and Afghanistan. As such, it may attempt to host Iranian delegations and persuade the White House to deescalate hostilities.
However, it is also possible that Doha’s attempts to mediate will backfire. Israel has shown that it can defeat Iran and weaken its military.
Doha usually relies on its ability to play both sides when each side seems to have the initiative. For instance, the Taliban were slowly winning in Afghanistan, and the US wanted to get out. Qatar helped the US leave.
Hamas has been holding hostages. Qatar then positioned itself as seeking a ceasefire to aid the hostages.
But Iran does not seem to have this leverage. The Islamic Republic is losing rapidly. Iran’s regime may be in danger.
There is also no strong Iran lobby in Washington as there was in the past. Republicans are impressed with Israel’s ability to weaken Iran.
Although some voices on the fringe of the Right and Left oppose the war, most of them are taking a wait-and-see approach, and many are cheering Israel on.
Iran has threatened the US for 45 years. There isn’t much sympathy for Tehran.
Qatar must act quickly to play a role in the current crisis. Calling for diplomacy and condemning Israel may not work as well as it has in the past.
Iran’s regime is weakened. Tehran’s threats to the Gulf or US bases in the region will not come off well in Washington.
If Trump decides to move forward with intervention and Doha opposes the move, this will not improve Qatar’s position.
Qatar may pivot, choosing to ditch the Iranian regime, and that might change its calculations about Hamas.
Perhaps it could then pressure the terrorist organization to end the war. This is another possible outcome.