Shortly before US President Donald Trump gave his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, senior officials from the US House of Representatives and Senate emerged from a classified briefing on Iran held by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA chief John Ratcliffe.
Their message was: "What we heard was extremely serious - grave moments for the Middle East. The president must present his case to the American people."
A few hours later, that happened. In the longest State of the Union address in history, at 107 minutes long, breaking Trump's previous record, the president summarized in a few sentences the reasons he might go to war with Iran: they killed 32,000 protesters, they are developing missiles capable of reaching the US, and they still refuse to say they will not develop nuclear weapons.
Trump's list of reasons is, of course, Israel's dream scenario: nuclear issues, missiles, and proxies. In other words, Trump appears to be laying the groundwork for war far more than peace, since the chances that Iran would agree to concessions on all three issues are virtually zero.
On the other hand, Trump's statement regarding the nuclear deal raises some questions. Just hours before Trump's speech, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X/Twitter explicitly stating that Iran would not develop nuclear weapons, so why did Trump claim otherwise?
Could this be a signal to the Iranians that a clear and unequivocal statement from a senior figure, even Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself, could prevent a war with the US and be lauded by Trump as a personal achievement? In other words, while explaining the reasons for war, Trump is also making clear that he still prefers a diplomatic solution.
In recent weeks, Trump has asked to hear about a "lightning strike" against Iran - one that would be over in a single night and would not drag all sides into weeks of war. The Pentagon struggled to present such a plan at the time, which is why massive numbers of US military personnel and equipment were brought to the Middle East, with more still to arrive.
Iran strike may backfire, could cause escalation, generals warn Trump
Nevertheless, even now, Trump's generals are telling him that a strike, no matter how powerful, may not produce a "one-off event" and could instead escalate or even make the Iranians appear victorious.
Arab diplomats have warned senior officials in Washington recently that they are "climbing a very tall tree. The Iranians will not concede, and you will have to enter a prolonged campaign, even if you don't want to."
Despite all of this, the Trump administration's conduct over the past week suggests that Trump is still leaning towards war. Officials in Israel, along with some in Washington, say that there is no chance of bridging the gaps between the US and Iran.
Yet, it still appears that Trump is willing to give one last opportunity. Was the speech a fishing line cast toward the Iranians, or an explanation for the day explosions will be heard in Tehran? We will probably know within the next few days.