The perils of predicting political and diplomatic developments are well known, especially in the Middle East. “Black Swan” events seem par for the course (i.e., events that are highly improbable, difficult to predict, and end up having drastic consequences).
Which is why I am so glad I didn’t publish a forecast for 2023, one year ago this week. I would have been wrong on all accounts. Never could I have imagined that Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s just-then-announced judicial reforms would tear this country apart for nine months. Nor could I have predicted that Hamas would catch Israel napping with a barbaric invasion that has led to the shattering Gaza war, which is still underway.
In my crystal ball column in January 2022, I did foresee tough combat ahead. I wrote that “Israel is likely to wage this year a multifaceted war against Iran’s terrorist proxies in the region – Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad – in successive or simultaneous fashion. A full-scale IDF operation to degrade enemy capabilities in Lebanon and Gaza is just a question of time, and this needs to be done before directly striking at Iran in Iran.”
I then further wondered “whether Washington will give Israel full-throated backing in such circumstances of intense ground combat, with all the civilian casualties this will entail.”
The good news here, and really the greatest positive surprise of the current war, is the staunch support of US President Joe Biden. Never did I imagine such steadfast backing from Biden. Despite growing differences between Washington and Jerusalem over the next stages of the war and “day after” scenarios, I think that all Israelis should be deeply appreciative of Biden’s moral leadership and concrete assistance, especially since no Democratic president in the next 50 years is likely to be so understanding.
I also accurately predicted at the start of 2022 that Israel’s new peace treaties with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco would hold firm, despite the Biden administration’s lack of enthusiasm for the Abraham Accords (a disinclination stemming from the Trump administration’s stamp on the accords and the Biden administration’s desire for a renewed nuclear deal with Iran). The accords continue to hold firm despite the conflict with Hamas. I also estimated that it would be two to three years before Riyadh publicly embraces Israel, and I stand by that assessment – again, despite the conflict with Hamas.
How will 2024 look for Israel?
WHEN LOOKING into my crystal ball for 2024, this is what I see:
Israel will have to increase its defense budget from 60 billion to 90 billion shekels (from 16 billion to 25 billion dollars), large chunks of which will be earmarked for a full year of combat in Gaza and perhaps Lebanon, long stints of military duty for reservists, rehabilitation of injured soldiers, massive production and stockpiling of ammunition, and military-strike planning on Iran.
Another NIS 10 billion will be needed to cover the evacuation costs of 150,000 people from Israel’s northern and southern border areas, higher budgets for police and other security services, and the reconstruction of towns destroyed by Hamas on October 7.
Tighten your belt in anticipation of major budget cuts in every other sector, from health to education. The government said that no new taxes are planned, but it will be impossible to avoid them (especially in the second half of the year, after the elections, which are to be expected; see below).
Over the course of 2024 and perhaps 2025, 500 kilometers or so of underground terror tunnels will be exposed in Gaza and destroyed through diligent IDF combat operations, following which Israel will have to target Hezbollah’s equally dangerous tunnels and bunkers as well. Hopefully, the Israeli Air Force can destroy most of Hezbollah’s mammoth stock of precision-guided and long-range missiles before they rain down on Israel. Buckle your seat belts for a long, difficult ride.
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, will go the way of Saleh al-Arouri, the terrorist group’s deputy leader, and discover that there are no virgins waiting for him in the next world. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah will also get the chance to make a similar discovery.
Despite his best efforts to avoid it, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be forced into elections in the fall, leading to his defeat. Even though the Israeli public has dramatically shifted rightward in the wake of the Hamas attack and PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s support for the attack, the right will be swept out of office as part of the house-cleaning tidal wave that will characterize Israeli politics.
Likud will splinter into at least three parties, with Yossi Cohen, Naftali Bennett, Yuli Edelstein, Nir Barkat, and Gideon Sa’ar each seeking a piece of those pies.
The vaunted Israeli center will spawn new political parties too, all promising “unity,” “togetherness,” “brotherhood,” “resilience,” and fealty to “Jewish, Zionist, and democratic values” along with a commitment to fight “corruption.” These parties will do well even though their policies relating to the economy, diplomacy, and defense won’t be much different from those of the Likud era.
BENNY GANTZ is most likely the next Israeli prime minister. But his tenure will be a stopgap, a holding period in Israeli politics leading toward the maturation of the next generation of Israeli leaders. I am thinking of those brave soldiers, young social activists, and volunteers who are the real heroes of the current Gaza war. Down the road – say, in the 2028 elections – they will emerge as better unifiers with a vision of a wholesome Israeli national renaissance and a bolder defense posture.As for Netanyahu? I hope that the prosecution is wise enough to cut a plea bargain deal with him and that he is smart enough to accept it to end his trials for misdemeanors. (The courts have already indicated he won’t be convicted of bribery.)
A big question is who will emerge as Israel’s next IDF chief of staff, chief of military intelligence, GSS director, and so on – after an entire generation and several top echelons of Israeli military and intelligence leadership resign or are guillotined for the October 7 collapse. Remember: Somebody must fight the next wars, and they must be warriors not tainted by the faulty security and diplomatic paradigms of past decades.
Perhaps the most depressing development of 2023 lies beyond Israel’s borders: the astonishing speed with which the floodgates of global antisemitism have opened. Physical attacks against highly identifiable Jews have become commonplace, and verbal and intellectual assaults against supporters of Israel have become politically correct, even highly regarded. The woke world is unabashedly allied with Israel’s genocidal enemies.
It would be nice to forecast the denouement of this depravity, along with a surge in Aliyah to Israel for all the right reasons, but I can’t see either happening so quickly.
Despite the hard slog predicted here, Israel still sizzles with creativity, and this will bring renewed foreign investment and ever-accelerating collaborations with partners from Marrakesh to Mumbai and Melbourne. Above all, I believe that Israel will emerge stronger from this rough period: less starry-eyed but more steely, less bubbly but more buoyant, less wealthy but more focused. Israeli society is strong – its faith robust and its grit undiminished.
The writer is senior managing fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, in Jerusalem. The views expressed here are his own. His diplomatic, defense, political, and Jewish world columns over the past 27 years are at davidmweinberg.com.