Iran has paralyzed the global economy. Once the bete-noire of Israel and the United States, a country of 90 million people now holds global security and trade hostage. It is not clear if Iran’s enablers, Qatar and Turkey, or its allies, Russia and China, actually call the shots in Tehran or have any influence. Iran declares that, while it encourages and supports movements like Ansar Allah (the Houthi movement) in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, it does not actually control them. The animals essentially have taken over the zoo; Frankenstein has lost control of the monster.
As we near the 100th anniversary of the abolishment of the Ottoman Caliphate, the final public words of the last Halife-i Muslimin (Caliph of Muslims), Abdul Mejid II ring true. Sunni Islam has fallen to extremists and jihadists, with no moderate champion to give direction. Indeed, Hamas and other socialist extremist branches of the Islamic brotherhood have started forming a common cause with the Shia theocracy, itself a socialist version of Shi’ite rule.
With the Bab al-Mandab Strait literally becoming the Gate of Tears for global trade, Iran, its proxies, and allies are evolving their tactics. Pakistan, a fierce champion of Hamas and opponent of Israel, spent days after October 7 supporting the Palestinian cause. On the other end, it quietly started deporting Afghan refugees back into the arms of the Taliban in the middle of a harsh winter while the world was distracted.
Iran’s Baloch bluff
In a macabre use of Israel’s attack against Hamas, Iran bombarded Baloch separatists in Pakistan, and a “furious” Pakistan returned the favor by bombing Baloch “terrorists” in Iran. No Iranian or Pakistani soldiers were killed. While this sudden animosity and belligerence between two Chinese allies and Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) members raised eyebrows, it was quite clear that this was a double bluff. Had Iran and Pakistan gone after their own Baloch separatists, they would have been accused of human rights violations by the West. By going after each other’s Baloch separatists, not only did the governments do each other a mutual favor, but they also claimed they were defending themselves against terrorism.
Baloch separatists have also become a thorn in the implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, especially in Pakistan. The Gwadar port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are still largely unusable by China to avoid the Indian Ocean due to Baloch attacks on CPEC workers and convoys. China is spreading the narrative that while it is trying to help resolve conflicts, it is helpless.
The key to stability: The failed states of Africa
Then there are the failed states in the Horn of Africa. The Asian end of the Bab al-Mandab Strait is controlled by the Houthis, while the African end is controlled by Eritrea and the Gulf of Aden, and the strait ends in Somali waters. Eritrea, where both Israel and Iran are reported to have a military presence, is ruled by a Muslim dictator. With Ethiopia accumulating troops on the border, Asmara, the capital of Eritrea, is leaning more toward Iran.
Meanwhile, Turkey is busy trying to reestablish its influence over Somalia and take control of Somali waters. The previous Somali President, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmaajo,” was a Turkish-Qatari candidate, and the current President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamed, is strongly supported by the UAE.
Ethiopia’s recent agreement with Somaliland has upset this balance, and Hassan Sheikh Mohamed has welcomed Turkey’s support. On a personal note, the Somali president’s son, facing vehicular manslaughter charges in Istanbul for killing a motorcycle courier, was found guilty by the court but spared jail time.
The list of failed states continues, but these states are now key for the security of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and global trade. Most of them are being actively recruited by China, Iran, or their allies.
Three wars and a shock
The US is fighting three major wars and is winning none. Normally, three major wars are followed by a shock, at which point the shock could be fatal for the free world. US forces in Syria and Iraq are being regularly attacked, and US President Joe Biden is struggling to keep Ukraine financed against Russia. Israel’s war against Hamas and, at times, against Syria and Hezbollah also requires strong US support; any sign of weakness could be fatal. Now a new front against the Houthis in the Bab al-Mandab Strait to secure the sea route from Asia to Europe is stretching US capacities.
Biden’s term started with a bumbled withdrawal from Afghanistan, and if the United States were to withdraw from Syria and Iraq, there would be a high risk, not only of Iran’s proxies replacing the void but also of a resurgence of the Islamic State (DA’ESH).
While in an election year, a US president cannot be expected to attack Iran, Biden has traditionally tried the Obama doctrine of Iran appeasement, which has repeatedly failed. The US and its allies are running out of options, as treating the symptoms does not seem to be yielding any results.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has called for an Italy-Africa conference as part of her Mattei plan – a kind of Marshall Plan for Africa. Meloni’s plan is still on the drawing board, horribly underfunded, and seemingly without the teeth it requires to deal with Africa’s problems. It is, however, the only initiative around.
The Russia-China-Iran-Pakistan-Qatar-Turkey alliance started off as an odd-sounding grouping. However, Sunni and Shi’ite extremists seem to have come to an understanding. While 2024 is the year of elections with over 4 billion people going to vote, unless the US, NATO, and other pillars of democracy act definitively against Iran, they will only embolden Russia and China. Iran is the key, and it’s time to act now.
The writer is the president of Glocal Cities. He is a political researcher, consultant, and entrepreneur, and has worked in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa for two decades. He has interacted with leaders and decision-makers, and has worked closely with people from all walks of life all over the Middle East.