Is the IDF losing deterrence by pulling out of Gaza? - opinion

The IDF stated that the withdrawal of soldiers from Gaza is a tactical move to refresh forces and prepare for a major operation in Rafah. This may not be the way Israel's enemies perceive it.

 Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference in Jerusalem on March 31, 2024. (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/POOL)
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference in Jerusalem on March 31, 2024.
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/POOL)

If, in his daily briefings, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby says that Israel has done what was expected of it and is moving towards a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, he will faithfully represent the American interpretation of the IDF's recent withdrawal from Gaza. It is possible that the US will be satisfied with Israel's steps and may begin to believe that its pressure on Israel is starting to work.

On the other hand, in Lebanon, especially in Hezbollah, they are confident that Israel left only symbolic forces in the Gaza Strip because the IDF is concentrated on reinforcing the North and is planning a major attack on southern Lebanon to return Israel's northern residents to their homes.

The Iranians definitely interpret the Israeli move as another step in the war against Iran, in case conflict with Iran hurts Israel to such an extent that Israel will be forced to consider further action to maintain its deterrence power. Hamas may interpret the partial withdrawal of IDF soldiers from the Gaza Strip as a result of the terrorist group's strong stance and refusal to approve hostage deals, as Israel has been hoping for a long time, and due to Israel's inability to achieve war objectives until the end.

Only in Israel do they say that this is a tactical decision, part of it intended to rejuvenate the troops and part of it to build renewed readiness for a wide operation in Rafah. It must be acknowledged that the steps taken by the IDF, as per the instructions of the political echelon, seem somewhat puzzling and add to a number of other puzzling steps that have been made recently. Such a step was supposed to be taken in preparation for a possible short= or long-term hostage deal and ceasefire, as suggested by the Americans, Egyptians, and Qataris. Yet, the IDF decided to withdraw from Gaza even before completing its operations, while most of the hostages are still kept in Hamas tunnels without any plan for their release.

 Footage of IDF operating in the Gaza Strip released April 7, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
Footage of IDF operating in the Gaza Strip released April 7, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

The IDF is losing momentum

Either way, the IDF is losing momentum. It seems that it has given up on a large-scale hostage deal as demanded by the US; otherwise, why would it pull out of Khan Yunis at this stage and leave 4-6 terrorist battalions alive and breathing, which could serve as a promising nucleus for Hamas's recovery? Where is the logic?

Suppose the rumors about the imminent deployment of a multi-national Arab peacekeeping force in Gaza are correct. In that case, the hasty departure of the IDF raises even more doubts. For example, how exactly will the IDF eliminate the heads of Hamas when they hide behind the backs of Egyptian and Jordanian policemen, whose harm could jeopardize peace relations? And who will ensure that the multi-national force will even allow Israel to operate in Gaza at all?

Israel has lost its deterrence, and the hasty withdrawal from Gaza is a direct continuation of previous Israeli failures concerning Gaza. Yes, Israel destroyed Gaza, and it would likely do the same to other Arab countries in a possible confrontation. But what about fulfilling its promises to the rest of the world? If there is no hostage deal on the table, the IDF must quickly return to action in Gaza and eliminate the rest of Hamas's power. Only after that will the time come for a broad withdrawal.