Will he, or won’t he? That is the question captivating the Middle East this week as the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, 50 new fighter jets, and a fleet of support ships move into position. The region is bracing for a potential American offensive against Iran, but the final word rests with one man.
As of this writing, US President Donald Trump has yet to make a decision, and what he chooses to do could determine the trajectory of the Middle East for decades.
But while the world’s eyes are fixed on the horizon, waiting for the flash of Tomahawk missiles, a far quieter – yet equally significant – transformation is unfolding right under our feet.
This is the type of strategic change typically driven by ambitious leaders seeking to leave a legacy that will outlast their time in office. In the current Israeli government, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich may be the only figure who can genuinely claim to be doing so. While the public has been distracted by the prospect of regional war, Smotrich has overseen what can only be described as a methodical, de facto annexation of Judea and Samaria.
The truth is that the writing has been on the wall for three years. During coalition negotiations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Smotrich secured the finance portfolio and engineered a position that had never existed before – a minister within the Defense Ministry acting as the effective governor of the West Bank. He assumed control of the Civil Administration of Judea and Samaria, established a new settlement administration, and launched reforms on a scale in the territories not seen since Israel took control of the land in 1967.
The numbers reveal the scope of this transformation. Since January 2023, more than 50,000 housing units have been advanced in Judea and Samaria. Sixty-nine new communities have been established, including 20 built entirely from scratch, where no houses or caravans had previously existed. Two of them – Kadim and Ganim – were evacuated more than 20 years ago as part of the 2005 Disengagement plan. By rebuilding them, the government is actively undoing the strategic decisions of a previous generation.
Then came Sunday’s announcement – a move that fundamentally alters the legal landscape in the territories. The cabinet authorized the opening of a land registration process for the first time since the Six Day War, allowing the government to register broad swaths of land as state land and make them available for Israeli development.
Simultaneously, the security cabinet expanded enforcement into Areas A and B – territories previously under Palestinian Authority military and civilian control. In practical terms, this means that, for the first time, Israeli citizens can now purchase land there.
Smotrich has made no secret of his objectives. Addressing party supporters on Tuesday, he called on the next government to “encourage emigration” of Palestinians from the West Bank and to apply full Israeli sovereignty.
“I am stating here, now, before you, one of our goals for the next term – the elimination of the idea of an Arab terror state, the cancellation of the cursed Oslo Accords, and embarking on a path to sovereignty, while encouraging emigration in Gaza and also in Judea and Samaria. In the long term, there is no other solution.”
This ideological campaign is unfolding as the defense establishment records an unprecedented rise in far-right violence in the West Bank. In the last month alone, 55 attacks by Jewish extremists were documented. In 2025, IDF Central Command logged 870 instances of violence – a 30% spike from the previous year.
Even for those who support annexation of Judea and Samaria, this should be cause for profound concern.
No cabinet decision to revoke Oslo Accords
The deeper problem, however, is that this dramatic transformation is being executed without a clear government mandate or public vote. There has been no formal cabinet decision to revoke the Oslo Accords – agreements Netanyahu himself repeatedly reinforced and ratified – nor any official declaration of a pivot toward a one-state reality. Instead, we are witnessing the steady creation of facts on the ground designed to ensure that a two-state solution becomes impossible, not just today but decades from now.
Such a momentous shift should not occur in the shadows. It requires oversight, debate, and the accountability of a functioning democracy. But this brings us to the core problem facing Israeli voters: How can we demand accountability for policy when we have stopped demanding honesty in politics?
The reason we find ourselves in a state of creeping annexation is that we have accepted a political culture in which policy is rarely discussed. Rather than asking politicians what they intend to do, the public – and the media alongside it – fixates on coalition pledges about who candidates will or will not sit with.
It is time to recognize that these pledges are disposable. When a government can fundamentally alter the status quo in the territories without a formal vote, it is because leaders understand that the public no longer expects transparency.
That is why my recommendation to Israeli voters as we head into another election cycle is simple: Ignore coalition pledges. When politicians declare who they will or will not sit with, treat it as political theater.
Consider two examples. In 2021, Naftali Bennett sat in a television studio and signed a document committing never to sit with Mansour Abbas or form a rotation government with Yair Lapid. Months later, he did exactly that. Today, Bennett says he is returning to politics to replace Netanyahu and not to sit with him. That may be true – but it may also not be.
The same applies to Netanyahu. After the Bennett-Abbas government was formed, Netanyahu and Likud launched an aggressive campaign to delegitimize Jewish parties relying on Arab support, framing it as a danger to the state.
Yet if the next election leaves Netanyahu short of 61 seats, does anyone seriously believe he would not explore bringing Abbas into his government? In 2021, Netanyahu actively pursued such a partnership, meeting Abbas multiple times and offering budgets and concessions. It was Smotrich who ultimately blocked the move.
All of this is connected. The de facto annexation of the West Bank is the natural byproduct of a political system where words are cheap and real power operates without transparency.
Whether you support a two-state solution or a one-state reality, the path forward must be chosen in the light of day. Stop asking who your preferred candidate will sit with. Ask instead: Who has a coherent vision for Israel’s future? Who has a credible security plan that is transparent and explains where we are going and how we intend to get there?
In an era of signed pledges that mean little, the only thing voters can truly demand is transparency. If we do not insist on honesty during campaigns, we will never achieve accountability in government.
The writer is co-founder of MEAD, a senior fellow at JPPI, and the former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post. He is the author of several books on Israeli national security, including While Israel Slept.