In a poll conducted by Siena College and released on Tuesday, a group of New York Jewish voters were asked about various public policies in the state of New York as well as candidate preferences for the upcoming national elections. The results were surprising - according to the poll, New York Jews prefer Trump at 53 percent and Biden at 44 percent.
However, in terms of congressional elections, Jews in New York maintained that they would continue to vote for Democratic candidates over Republican candidates at 54 percent to 39 percent. According to analysts, Jews comprised only 8% of the large sample of 806 people polled.
New electoral battlegrounds
There are many possible explanations for the rightward shift of New York Jews and perhaps even the larger trend of Jews in the US. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war following Hamas's October 7 attacks on southern Israel, Jews worldwide have experienced a rise in antisemitism in their communities. New York has seen a rise in antisemitic incidents, continuous pro-Palestinian demonstrations, and the harassment of Jews.
In terms of presidential candidates, both Biden and Trump have storied and complex relationships with Israel. Since the October 7 attacks, Biden has issued statements and rhetoric defending Israel and condemning the attacks on Israel's south. However, in recent weeks, he has become more critical of Israel's ground invasion of the Gaza Strip and the deepening humanitarian crisis.
Trump, throughout his tenure, moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and ushered in the era of the Abraham Accords and budding relations between Israel and Arab states, but he has also made inflammatory and antisemitic comments about US Jews, as well as about the recent Hamas attacks. After the outbreak of the war, he claimed that such an attack on Israel would not have occurred had he been president.
The presidential elections, which will be held on November 5, 2024, stand as a test for analyzing the future of US Jews and party affiliation. US Jews have typically been a foundation of the Democratic base, but with the widening Middle East crisis and correlating rising antisemitism, that may change.