The good news is that Israel has not lost the war. We can win. As the IDF's long awaited ground assault is demonstrating, on a tactical level, the IDF has been able to learn on the go, and learn well.
The bad news is that Israel's national leadership has so far managed to take every political and strategic advantage that Israel has, and turn it into an impediment. Today, assuming Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will let us win, what three weeks ago could have been a rapid victory will now be costly and slow.
Regionally and internationally, the threats that Israel faces mount by the day. While all eyes are focused on Lebanon, Syria and Iran have both upped the ante. Diplomatically, Israel is a guppy swimming with the sharks. And as the dangers mount, far from learning from their mistakes, Olmert, Defense Minister Amir Peretz, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen Dan Halutz have gone from acting like rookies to acting like amateurs.
And so, as the IDF marches on to an uncertain but still forward marching trumpet, it is becoming increasingly clear that Israel's chief impediment to victory is its government.
The week began well enough. In his speech before the Mayors Conference, Olmert made a go of speaking in Winston Churchill's voice. His message of stubborn commitment to victory was so well delivered that even his political rivals admitted he had inspired them. It is true that doubt lurked in the shadows. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's support for a rapid cease-fire showed that the wall of American support was beginning to crack. But Olmert seemed impervious to pressure.
Then came that bizarre State Department announcement in the middle of the night informing the IDF that it would be ceasing aerial bombardment for 48 hours. This, together with Rice's announcement Monday morning that working with her colleagues at Turtle Bay she would be forcing Israel to end its operations altogether by Wednesday or Thursday, was the first clear indicator that Israel's leaders had failed to maintain meaningful US support.
By Tuesday, Olmert had replaced his Churchillian face with a one more reminiscent of Bill Clinton. To the amazement of the media and indeed of the entire country, Olmert announced that we had won the war. Addressing the IDF War College, Olmert declared, "If the military campaign were to end today, already today it could be said with certainty that the face of the Middle East has changed… Now [Hizbullah] can never threaten this nation that it will fire missiles at it - because this nation is contending with these missiles and beating them."
Huh? Olmert went on to say that neither he, nor Peretz nor the members of the General Staff had ever promised us that when the war ends we won't still face the threat of missiles from Lebanon. Even the normally supportive media admitted that was a bold-faced lie.
Yet the contempt which greeted Olmert's fabrications and empty declarations of victory did not deter him. In fact, it seemed to embolden him. By Wednesday morning he removed his Clinton mask and went back to being plain old Olmert - the hack politician who was barely elected to Knesset in 2003.
Speaking to news services Wednesday morning, Olmert built on his fantasies of victory. By then not only had Israel changed the balance of power and restored its deterrence, it had actually destroyed all of Hizbullah's infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Before Olmert's remarks hit the wires, Hizbullah opened its largest missile attack at Israel to date. In all 231 missiles, including two long-range missiles, rained down on Israel that day.
Of course that wasn't all Olmert said. He also told the Associated Press that Israel's "victory" against Hizbullah would pave the way for the implementation of his plan to transfer control of Judea and Samaria to Hizbullah's most ardent supporters - the Hamas and Fatah-led Palestinians.
Olmert's empty declarations of victory and his continued obsession with his plan to expel up to 100,000 Israeli citizens from their homes in Judea and Samaria and transfer the areas to the Palestinian Authority are not simply preposterous. They are dangerous.
On the domestic level, anyone who takes a look at both the IDF casualties and the IDF troops and officers themselves will see that talk of withdrawing from Judea and Samaria is a recipe for demoralization. Maj. Ro'i Klein, the deputy battalion commander from the Golani brigade who was killed in Bint Jbail last week, died heroically, when after calling out "Shema Yisrael" he jumped on a hand grenade to save the lives of his soldiers. Klein lived with his wife and two young children in the community of Eli that Olmert has slated for destruction.
So too, Lt. Amichai Merhavia, who was also killed in the battle, lived in Eli. In photographs making their way through the Internet, Merhavia is seen being beaten by police as he passively resisted the destruction of the Gilad Farm in Samaria in 2002. Last summer prior to the expulsion of Israeli civilians from Gaza and the withdrawal of IDF forces, Merhavia sent a private letter to Halutz. In it he explained why he believed the operation was wrong. Halutz reportedly ordered him thrown out of the army. His commanders intervened and Merhavia was placed on a three-week leave.
Between 30-50 percent of the IDF combat troops and officers in the regular army and the reserves are religious. A large percentage of them live in Judea and Samaria. By claiming that a victory in Lebanon will pave the way for them to be thrown out of their homes, Olmert signaled clearly that he doesn't understand the role of a national leader in wartime, and worse, he doesn't understand why victory is essential.
Indeed, his declarations of victory themselves indicate that he does not understand the nature of the war Israel is facing or the challenges it must contend with both regionally and internationally. By claiming that Israel has already won when it is absolutely clear it has not, Olmert sends terrible messages to both Israel's ally the US, and to Israel's enemies.
