Israel Elections: Political deadlock unchanged by ending school crisis - poll

If United Torah Judaism's two factions run separately in the Israeli election, Agudat Yisrael would not pass the electoral threshold, strengthening Yair Lapid.

  Teachers' Union head Yaffa Ben-David, Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton and Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman hold a press conference (photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/MAARIV)
Teachers' Union head Yaffa Ben-David, Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton and Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman hold a press conference
(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/MAARIV)

The new salary agreement signed at the last minute between Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman, Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton and the Teachers Union has not changed the Israeli political situation, according to a new poll conducted by Menachem Lazar, head of Panel Politics.

If United Torah Judaism’s two factions – Degel Hatorah and Agudat Yisrael – run separately in the election, Agudat Yisrael would not pass the electoral threshold. This will strengthen the bloc led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the poll found.

Latest Israel election poll: No government in sight

The full results of the poll were Likud 31 seats; Yesh Atid 24; Religious Zionist Party 13; National Unity 13; Shas eight; UTJ six; Joint List six; Labor, Meretz and Yisrael Beytenu five each; and Ra’am four. Zionist Spirit, led by Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, received just 1.9% of the vote, significantly below the threshold of 3.25%.

The Right bloc of opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud, RZP, Shas and UTJ) thus polled at 58 seats and the Lapid bloc at 56 seats, with the remaining six seats belong to the Joint List. This means that neither bloc would be able to form a coalition.

 Defense Minister Benny Gantz with MK Moshe Gafni during a plenum session at the assembly hall of the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on August 15, 2022 (credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90) Defense Minister Benny Gantz with MK Moshe Gafni during a plenum session at the assembly hall of the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on August 15, 2022 (credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90)

What if the United Torah Judaism Party splits up?

With Degel Hatorah and Agudat Yisrael running separately, Likud would gain one seat and rise to 32, the Religious Zionist Party would lose a seat and receive 12, Yisrael Beytenu would gain a seat and win six, and Degel Hatorah would win five.

In this scenario, the Lapid and Netanyahu blocs would be tied at 57 seats apiece.

The poll also found that the “Tzeirim Bo’arim” (“Fiery Youth”) Party led by Hadar Muchtar would receive 0.6% of the vote.

The poll was conducted among 703 people over the age of 18, with a stated margin of error of +/–3.7%.