If a terror group like Hamas continues to exist, it cannot be deterred and will continue to constitute a threat, former Mossad director Tamir Pardo said on Thursday.
Speaking at the INSS conference, Pardo said that anyone who thinks they can carry out a "military campaign against a terror group" to end them has lost their way.
Saying that Israel has held "foolish" expectations regarding Hamas, he said, "There is no deterrence against a terror organization. There are only two options. Either it exists or does not exist. If it exists, there is no deterrence. They might take a hit in the head, but then they will just cut their losses, switch over their weapon magazines, and attack again."
Pardo said that another option would be to try to turn a terror group into a political group, as was done in Ireland.
The Palestinian Authority
He added that the Palestinian Authority tried to do this to some extent in recent decades.
The former Mossad chief was very critical of Israel's pre-October 7 "conceptual framework" for deterring Hamas and was equally critical of the idea that Israel could eliminate Hamas with a military campaign, absent a political horizon.
Further, he warned that if large numbers of Palestinians were starving or underfed, it would come back to haunt Israel regarding its standing in the world long beyond whatever tactical victories the IDF has achieved against Hamas.
Later at the same conference, ex-CIA chief David Petraeus on Thursday said that for Israel to beat Hamas, it must not only take apart its remaining battalions in Rafah but also must get Gaza running again for Palestinian civilians.
Petraeus said that only by getting Gaza running again for Palestinian civilians, whether in stable food distribution, with hospitals properly running, and eventually with a general return of civil society, will Israel truly be able to end Hamas’s source of support.
The former CIA chief stated Israel cannot “stop until Hamas has been destroyed and cannot be reconstituted.”
In addition, he said Israel must get Gazans back to their homes, demonstrate to people that aid is being given in a stable way, “that hospitals are functioning, that construction will return,” and that society goes back to functioning…Then you need to a plan that is implemented which keeps them from being able to reconstitute.”
Despite his support for completely destroying Hamas, he said that Israel must eventually come to terms with a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Petraeus said that though the two-state solution has major issues, it is still the only stable way to eventually end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Further, he said that Saudi normalization will not occur until Israel comes to terms with this.
Regarding Iran, Petraeus said that election-year politics is holding the US back from confronting it with harsher sanctions.
He pushed hard that immediately after the November 2024 US presidential election Washington should restart a major sanctions campaign against the Islamic Republic.
A major change in strategic balance with Iran
Former IDF intelligence chief and current INSS Managing Director Tamir Hayman said that the message that attendees of the conference should take away is that a major change in the strategic balance with Iran, the Palestinians, and the Saudis is now possible.
He said that Israel recognized the challenges and risks, but that it should push forward without looking back if it concludes that the ultimate outcome will be reorienting the region in a way that favors Israeli security interests over the long term.
Former IDF chief and current war cabinet minister Gadi Eisenkot told the conference that Iran is the big winner of the current war because it has succeeded in undermining Israel in a number of ways and forced Israel to be distracted on an extended basis in fighting Tehran’s proxies.
The former IDF chief also expressed relative optimism that it was still possible that Israel would achieve enough of its security goals with Hezbollah to permit the northern border evacuees to return to their homes without having to enter a general war.
Former Shin Bet director Nadav Argaman repeated at the conference some of his past calls to replace the Netanyahu government in order to be able to have the country move on from past failures, including the October 7 Hamas massacre.
His desire to replace the current government extended far beyond Netanyahu to include the Haredi political parties, who he said should not be allowed to hold public service positions if they have not performed IDF or national service.
The former Shin Bet chief stated that the makeup of the current government and its being alienated from Israel’s Western allies and ignoring the Palestinian issue is what is preventing normalization with the Saudis and consolidation of an Israel-Sunni alliance against Iran.
Like Pardo, Argaman said there was never a way to deter Hamas fully.
He criticized Netanyahu and past Israeli governments for rejecting numerous requests by the Shin Bet, including him, to assassinate Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar and the rest of Hamas’s leadership.
Argaman said he supported current Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar’s decision to press forward with a probe of where the agency erred regarding the October 7 disaster.