Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party would remain the largest single party with 27 seats, former prime minister Naftali Bennett's party would receive 23 seats, and Yair Golan's Democrats Party would receive 12 seats, a poll conducted by Channel 12 found on Wednesday.
This poll was conducted following the decision of the Sephardi-haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Shas Party to leave the coalition, causing Netanyahu's bloc to weaken to a minority government with just 49 seats.
If an election were to take place today, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid Party and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu Party would each receive 10 seats.
Shas and the Ashkenazi-haredi United Torah Judaism Party would each receive eight seats.
Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit Party would each receive six seats.
Gantz's position was weakened after former member Gadi Eisenkot left the political party.
The two Arab parties, namely Ra’am (United Arab List), led by Mansour Abbas, and Hadash-Ta'al, led by Ayman Odeh and Ahmad Tibi, would each receive five seats.
Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party and the Arab Balad Party are unlikely to pass the electoral threshold, according to the latest poll.
How would Eisenkot's future allegiance change the results?
Pollsters also asked respondents how their electoral preferences would change if certain party list alliances were to form, particularly regarding the undeclared future of Eisenkot and his supporters.
What happens if Eisenkot forms a new party, while the other parties remain unchanged?
If Eisenkot forms a new party, the overall bloc map would not change, but changes could occur within the respective blocs.
Most notably, Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party would fail to meet the electoral threshold, with only 2.6% of the vote, according to Channel 12.
Likud would remain at 27 seats, but Bennett's party would drop from 23 to 19, the poll found.
Yair Golan's Democrats would remain at 12 seats, while Eisenkot's new party would receive 11 seats.
Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu would remain at 10 seats, and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid would weaken to nine.
What happens if Eisenkot joins Yesh Atid?
In this scenario, Likud would gain a seat, achieving 28 in total. Bennett's party would be the second-largest at 20, and Yesh Atid under Eisenkot's leadership would be the third-largest at 19 seats.
Yair Golan's Democrats would have 11 seats, Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu would have 10, Shas and UTJ would have eight, Otzma Yehudit would have 6, and Ra’am (United Arab List) and Hadash-Ta'al would each receive five.
In this scenario, Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party would also not pass the threshold, receiving only 1.7% of the vote.
What happens if Eisenkot joins Bennett’s party as his deputy?
In this scenario, there would be a major shift in results.
Bennett and Eisenkot's party would become the largest with 29 seats, while Likud would be second with 28.
The Democrats would receive 12 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu would receive 10.
Yesh Atid would receive nine seats, while Shas and UTJ would receive eight each.
Otzma Yehudit would have 6, and Ra’am (United Arab List) and Hadash-Ta'al would each receive five.
Blue and White would receive 2.8% and not pass the threshold.
When should Knesset elections be held?
Pollsters also asked respondents their views on when the Knesset should hold a new election.
A majority of those surveyed, 53%, believe that elections should be held as soon as possible, the poll found. The data further broke down that 87% of these were opposition voters, and 19% were coalition supporters.
This is also a 4% increase in those calling for elections as soon as possible, as compared to a poll on June 24.
Approximately one-third of respondents, at 38%, responded that the elections should be held at the scheduled date towards the end of 2026. This was further broken down into 71% of coalition supporters and 8% of opposition voters.
Approximately one-in-ten, at 9%, responded that they were unsure.
The poll surveyed 503 respondents, and has a margin of error at ±4.4%, Channel 12 confirmed.