When I covered politics for The Jerusalem Post, I sometimes dared to make predictions for the year ahead, and I even got some of them right.
Recent history, however, has proven it is more foolish than ever to prognosticate in the Middle East.
No one could have predicted the atrocities of October 7, and it has become increasingly clear that, unfortunately, neither the IDF nor anyone in the government was prepared for anything remotely similar to what happened on that horrible day.
The foreign media, which had a record-low number of journalists in Israel, was also caught off guard for the most part. One top journalist who was accused of having foreknowledge of the impending attack proved otherwise by revealing that he had slept on the northern border that night.
Another journalistic tradition, besides predictions at the start of a new year, is making resolutions. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the international media would resolve to treat Israel more fairly in the coming year?
Such resolutions could include refraining from automatically blaming Israel, not reporting before the facts are clear, and properly vetting whom they hire to cover the conflict. There have been plenty of examples of those kinds of mistakes over the past year, especially since Hamas attacked.
But given that there is no expectation of honest reporting about Israel, media watchdogs and readers who want the Jewish state treated better must monitor the foreign press coverage and highlight egregious errors in order to maintain deterrence on the media battlefield.
The coming year is expected to be unprecedentedly difficult for Israel in the media as October 7 is gradually forgotten and events occur that will not shine the brightest light on the Jewish state. Here are 10 events that will be covered closely in 2024, which we must monitor vigilantly to ensure that there will not be biased coverage of Israel.
1. January/February: End of war in Gaza
Will both sides’ casualties be correctly characterized by the media as the result of Hamas’s murderous attacks, or will Israel be blamed for everything that has happened in Gaza? The word “context” keeps coming up, and the proper context is that Israel was negotiating a Saudi peace deal that would have greatly helped Gazans, and Hamas preempted the deal by murdering more Jews than on any day since the Holocaust, knowing full well that Gazans would suffer. Casualty counts are unfair without the context that Hamas has proven itself a genocidal terrorist organization whose purpose is killing Jews, not helping Palestinians.
2. January-April: Escalation in the North?
Will Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah take advantage of Israeli soldiers being tired from the war in Gaza to initiate his own October 7? Just like the Israeli government and army must be ready for such a scenario, so should the press. US President Joe Biden told Nasrallah, “Don’t!” But now that the US is removing its most sophisticated aircraft carrier from the area, perhaps he will. Special attention should be paid during Ramadan, which starts March 10. There has been an unfortunate history of attacks on Israel during the Muslim holy month.
3. All year: Israeli political fallout
The day the war is declared over, Minister Benny Gantz will leave the government, and the heads of the IDF and Shin Bet security service will resign. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not, which will likely lead to the largest protests in Israel’s history. As long as Netanyahu keeps his 64-MK coalition together, he will remain prime minister. The way our democracy works, those 64 matter more than even a million protesters, as long as five coalition MKs do not rebel and join them. Even if an election is called, Netanyahu would remain prime minister until a new government is formed, which as we have seen, could require multiple elections. This entire process is likely to look very bad abroad without sensitive and objective coverage.
4. Summer/Fall: Formation of a commission of inquiry
What can force the resignation of Netanyahu is a national commission of inquiry. The Agranat Commission was formed in November 1973 to investigate the failings of Golda Meir’s government and the IDF before the Yom Kippur War and forced her April 1974 resignation. It will not work that fast this time. How can a retired judge be found to head such a commission who would be deemed impartial during a highly politicized battle over judicial reform? Worldwide media will cover the finger-pointing about Israel’s failures, and our dirty laundry will be aired across the globe.
5. All year: Judicial reform
The top story on The New York Times website Tuesday morning was about Israel’s Supreme Court and its ruling on the reasonableness clause. Would a court ruling about legal minutiae in Bulgaria, Botswana, or Bangladesh make news in Manhattan? No, but the world’s only Jewish state will always be under a microscope and be considered local news around the world. The battle over judicial reform is far from over. Plenty of negative international media coverage is on the way.
6. All year: Israel on trial in international courts
Israel will appear before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague next week to fight South Africa’s accusations that Israel committed genocide in Gaza. South Africa asked the court to issue an order for Israel to immediately suspend its operation. While in the past, Israel has tried to stall such proceedings by not cooperating, this time it wants to make its case to the world. The international media will also be used to make that case.
7. November: American election
When I covered Barack Obama’s victory party in Chicago in 2008, I was surprised that he spoke only about the Midwest and not the Mideast. With the world media’s attention focused on Israel now, the Jewish state is bound to be an issue. Israel has come up repeatedly in Republican primaries as candidates competed over who would be more likely to have Israel’s back. Biden has faced criticism from Congressman Dean Phillips, who is running against him and has called for a Gaza ceasefire. And that is all before the focus returns to Donald Trump, who will be asked by the media about how his views on Israel have evolved.
8. Spring and some time in 2024: Elections in India and UK
The support for Israel by prime ministers Narendra Modi and Rishi Sunak will be a campaign issue, just as for Biden, Trump, and other US candidates. They will repeatedly be asked critical questions about Israel by the media, no matter how little we matter to the average voter in Mumbai and Manchester.
9. May and July/August: Eurovision and Summer Olympics
Hamas’s attack on Israel and the retaliation that followed have absolutely nothing to do with music and sports. But as usual, Israel’s adversaries will use international stages to draw anti-Israel attention, with the international media willingly complicit. Minuscule protests in Sweden and Paris are likely to be blown out of proportion. Proponents of Israel will have to insist on returning the agenda to the talents of the singers and athletes and let them have their day in the sun.
10. October 7, 2024
The anniversary of the Hamas attack will return the international media to the sites of the atrocities. This will be a tremendous opportunity to remind the world of the tragedy and insist that it never be allowed to happen again.
October 7, 2023, was a rare day of almost universal empathy for Israel in the foreign press. Will that happen again in 2024? We shall see.
The writer is the executive director and executive editor of HonestReporting. He served as chief political correspondent and analyst of The Jerusalem Post for 24 years.