If there’s one outcome that could energize President Donald Trump’s political machine heading into the next election cycle, it would be Zohran Mamdani winning the New York City mayoral race.
The Democratic Party has lost touch with the general populace, becoming disconnected from the issues that matter to a majority of voters. Unite the Country, a Democratic super political action committee, found that voters perceive the party as “out of touch,” “woke,” and “weak.”
This was a great gift for Trump in his 2024 election bid. Democrats focused on marginal ideas in their campaigns, like men in women’s sports and rights for illegal immigrants.
Trump used this to his advantage. He painted the Democrats as villains: “They are for them. I am for you.” It was incredibly effective. Trump’s landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election saw him win the popular vote and all seven swing states.
Even in deep-blue New York City, Trump gained ground. He received roughly 100,000 more votes than in 2020, with notable increases across boroughs: Manhattan up over 5%, the Bronx over 11%, Brooklyn 6%, Queens about 11%, and Staten Island 8%.
Now the Democrats are backing an even more extreme platform in the New York City mayoral election. The president has been extremely successful in using his rhetoric to cast opponents as villains.
Mamdani would be the perfect foil for Trump: a progressive firebrand whose policies and persona could be weaponized daily to rally the president’s base and dominate media cycles.
Implications of a Mamdani victory
Yet the implications of a Mamdani victory go beyond galvanizing Trump’s base.
The Democratic Party is at risk of alienating moderate voters who feel increasingly disconnected from the party’s progressive wing.
This is the cohort of Americans that Democrats stand to lose.
Should Mamdani win next week, Democrats will be supplying Trump and the Republican Party with two years of bulletin board material: a far-left progressive striving to implement policies, like higher taxes and defunding the police, that do not resonate with the majority of voters.
Political landscape shift in the US
The US is experiencing a political landscape shift. Recent polls revealed that Democrats’ popularity plummeted to its lowest point in 35 years, with 63% of voters holding an unfavorable view of the party. Voter registration for Democrats is declining.
You can bet Trump will seize the opportunity to deepen the ideological divide in American politics and sway centrists to move right because they can’t subscribe to the radically progressive ideology of the Democratic Party that Mamdani represents.
Democrats don’t seem to have a plan for this. They should.
A Mamdani victory would be a gift that keeps on giving for Trump, fuel for the next two years, and a potent talking point for the Republican presidential candidate in 2028. The narrative writes itself.
Trump will use it all to reinforce his message: Democrats are out of touch, extreme, and incapable of governing. It’s an outcome that affords Trump a daily opportunity to solidify his base and stoke internal divisions within the Democratic Party.
The fringe Left will celebrate a great victory should Mamdani get sworn in. Yet it will push those in the middle, the moderate Democrats, further to the Right.
If someone leaked a memo from Trump’s inner circle saying, “There’s nothing better for us than Mamdani winning NYC,” I’d believe it. Because in today’s shifting, polarized political climate, the right villain can be just as powerful as the right candidate.
The writer, a native Israeli, is the founder and CEO of Capitolis, a financial technology company with offices in New York, Tel Aviv, and London.