Will Israel’s Arabs reach the political Promised Land? - opinion

Last week, on a Dutch podcast, I was asked whether the Palestinians would ever gain equal rights. I argued instead for separation, then realized the interviewer was referring to Israel’s Arab citizens. I told him they have equal rights on paper but he insisted they’re “not allowed to walk on certain streets.” My objection was rebuffed with European politeness.

And if you look closely, you’ll see many foundational assumptions dissolving.

Since 1977, Israeli politics operated as two blocs: On one side stood the Center, Left, and Arab parties; on the other was the Likud, the far Right, and religious and haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties. Whichever reached 61 seats determined who’d be prime minister – the leader either of Likud or the other bloc. Winners didn’t always form coalitions exclusively with their bloc. But the bloc determined who would be prime minister.

The Center-Left assumed that Israel’s Arabs were in its pocket: even if they weren’t formal coalition partners, they’d provide passive support, like a loyal concubine unfit for marriage but not looking elsewhere. Without the Arabs, then-prime minister Yitzhak Rabin wouldn’t have reached a position in 1992 where he could entice the religious party Shas to join his government; they gave him 61 – and never reached the Promised Land.

This arrangement suited everyone, because Arabs, too, weren’t eager to bear responsibility for the West Bank occupation and for operations against Palestinians. But it’s beginning to falter.

This is partly because Netanyahu has viciously delegitimized Arab politicians (understanding that without them, things get tough for his rivals) – and the opposition, fearing the loss of soft-right voters, went along. Now they constantly talk about achieving a majority without the Arabs. Newspapers and pollsters accelerate the process by no longer presenting charts with two blocs but with three: Right, Opposition, and Arabs.

Changes are also taking place among the Arabs that could detach them from their traditional bloc. The reasons are varied. They’re genuinely angry at opposition leaders who mainly project toward them disdain. In addition, Arab society tends toward religion and conservatism, which often find their home on the Right (for a similar reason, more Hispanics than before – though still a minority – recently voted Republican in the US).

Perhaps the most interesting development relates to the Palestinian issue – but not in the way Jews tend to think. The old paradigm assumed that liberal Israel was more friendly toward Palestinians – less racist and more concerned about the injustices of the occupation. Although this was true, that camp, as a whole, has largely despaired of peace, especially after October 7. Like the population at large.

If there’s still a market for opposing Jewish settlements and seeking an agreement with the Palestinians, it’s based on the demographic argument and the necessity of separation – not peace. The message to potential right-wing voters is: If you foolishly vote Right, you will saddle the Jewish state with too many Arabs by perpetuating our presence in the West Bank. (Indeed, Israel plus the West Bank would be almost 40% Arab – and with Gaza, majority Arab.) That fundamentally nationalist message – warning of a binational state – is correct. But it doesn’t exactly sound pleasant to Arab ears.

I once told an Israeli Arab interviewer that if I were an anti-Zionist Arab citizen of Israel, I would support the Right – to undermine the Jewish state. The interviewer smiled, because he understood what eludes many right-wing voters. Tragic-comic, this situation, I must say.

So don’t be too surprised if, in the end, an Arab party goes with the Right (or with a right-wing leader) because of some package of promises. The chances of this happening would already be good – were it not for the fact that in 2022, Netanyahu built such a dreadful coalition, which so blatantly abandoned the sector, that it presently seems implausible.

THE WILY Netanyahu may still try to neutralize this with creative maneuvers. More likely, he’ll do his best to disqualify Arab candidates and suppress turnout in the sector through the trickery at which he excels. Either way, count on this: if in a future scenario he needs Arab support and can get it, he won’t hesitate and will have no shame.  On the Arab street, this would be met with skepticism and some sympathy as well – but not fatal rejection.

That’s because Israeli Arabs are simply no longer a monolith. Yes, there are certainly still many who are hostile to the state, and many more who are disappointed and despairing, but it’s far wiser to embrace them. I also know Arabs who genuinely identify with the Right on “security” grounds – they want a strong leader and a strong state. Yes: A growing sub-sector has emerged, especially in mixed cities, that is culturally quite “Israeli.”

That is the deeper meaning of Saturday’s demonstration. Despite the horrific war in Gaza, a significant portion of the sector simply wants to be Israeli. What is missing, for now, is a hand extended from the other side. The Dutch podcaster would not find this stupidity surprising – it confirms his grim views on Israel. And all that is a great shame.

It is a shame because the Jewish people know what it means to live as a minority, because Israel promised equality in the Declaration of Independence, and because a “light unto the nations” should first shine bright right here at home.