The Jerusalem Post together with the Khaleej Times, an Emirati newspaper, finally held our Global Investment Forum conference in Dubai this week, which we had been working on for six months since just after the Abraham Accords were announced.
The gathering was originally scheduled for February and then May, but each time got postponed because of corona restrictions.
So when we set the date of the conference three months ago for June 2, we had no way of knowing what would be happening that day. Israel had yet to hold its fourth election, whose outcome was impossible to predict.
But fate is cynical, if not ironic, and June 2 became the date for the presidential election in Israel (which Isaac Herzog won), as well as the deadline for the mandate granted to Yair Lapid to form a government.
That timing created a split-screen moment for us in Dubai. Here we were, top Jerusalem Post editors and writers, celebrating the peace between Israel and the UAE with diplomats, journalists and businessmen from across the Middle East and Asia, while back home the man who helped make this possible was in the final stages of being ousted from power.
It was a moment that perfectly symbolized the modern tragedy of Benjamin Netanyahu. A great statesman who brought impressive accomplishments to Israel, managed in the end to bring together politicians ideologically and diametrically opposed to one another for the sole purpose of bringing him down.
Truly a Greek tragedy.
Imagine that Netanyahu had decided in April 2019 – after the first of the four recent elections – that he was not going to run again. Imagine that he read the political map and understood that a growing bipartisan bloc was forming against him, and that it made more sense alongside his criminal corruption charges to step down, have the case against him erased, and then bask in the glory of his achievements.
Those achievements included getting the US to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognize the Golan Heights as sovereign Israel, and withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Netanyahu will be remembered for all that, and I applaud those accomplishments.
But Netanyahu will also go down in history now as the political leader who managed to bring arch rivals together to form a coalition – even including an Arab Islamist party – for the sole purpose of bringing him down. He became one of Israel’s most divisive politicians. He ruled through fear and division, and became notorious for failing to keep his word. His trial will also continue, and while it is premature to predict what will happen, the chance of being convicted and then jailed cannot be ruled out.
With that said, this government is not yet a fait accompli. Netanyahu still has time until the Knesset convenes in about a week to confirm the new government. His focus in attempting to torpedo its formation will be on Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, on members like Nir Orbach and Idit Silman who if peeled away will potentially stop this kaleidoscope of a coalition from coming together.
Should Netanyahu fail, the question is what he will do next. Indications are that he will stay in the Knesset as leader of the Likud and head of Opposition.
The thinking will be twofold: first, he hopes the new government will fall apart quickly, at which point he gets to swoop back in, pick up the pieces, explain to Israelis how they made a mistake, and show them that they need him back.
For that to happen, he needs to hold onto the reins of the Likud. That is why he rejected a proposal by Israel Katz that he leave the helm for just one year so another Likudnik could form a coalition. For Netanyahu, it is either him or no one. If he can’t do it, then no one can.
Likud members like Katz, Nir Barkat and others will have to decide what to do next. Until now, they have acted like well-behaved hostages suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. But now they will understand that while they have 30 seats in the Knesset, someone else as head of the party could have been prime minister.
Which begs the question: if Netanyahu is now on his way out the door of Balfour, will these Likud members finally take a stand against him?
Judging by their behavior the last few years, the chance of a rebellion against Netanyahu is slim.
Meanwhile, the new government – at least on paper – has a lot going for itself. Bennett will make history as the first prime minister to wear a kippa, and will lead a government with an unprecedented number of female ministers as well as an Arab Islamic partner.
It is a true kaleidoscope coalition, bringing together almost every color the Israeli political spectrum has to offer. It is what we should always want to see in our government: as wide as possible a representation of the public who politicians are elected to serve.
But a government doesn’t exist on paper. It needs to operate in reality in real time, and Israel’s reality is complicated and volatile that will test this government early and often to see if it will hold together.
The incentive is clear. Bennett has already taken a serious beating among his right-wing voters, so a quick fall from power could mean an end to his political career – one already made famous by his becoming prime minister now just two years after failing in the April 2019 election to enter the Knesset.
For his part, Yair Lapid will want to make it to the summer of 2023, when he is scheduled to take over as prime minister. He will have no interest in bringing down the coalition either.
And the biggest incentive will be the one the so-called “change coalition” members will see and hear from the opposition every day: Netanyahu.
He will be the glue, at least in the beginning, which will keep the government together. Bennett, Lapid, Gideon Sa’ar, Benny Gantz and even Merav Michaeli all know that if they bring this amalgamation to a premature end, Netanyahu will have a good chance at winning a new election and wiping some of them out.
BENNETT’S TIME as prime minister will not be simple, and that’s an understatement. He will have to put out daily political fires within a fragmented coalition, will be tested constantly by Netanyahu sitting in opposition, and he will have national challenges to grapple with, from COVID-19 to Hamas, Iran and the Palestinians, to building bridges with the Biden administration and Diaspora Jewry.
Bennett’s motivation is that he has the opportunity now to pave a new path for himself. While the world brands him a right-wing nationalist, people do not really know Bennett outside of Israel, and he can use that to his advantage. Past success in hi-tech and business are key assets that he can capitalize on to outline a path forward dealing with the aforementioned issues.
Everyone understands that this government will not be able to make major moves on Israel’s most contentious political issues. But it will be able to take steps that create better conditions on the ground, and more prosperity for the people who live here.
Bennett and Lapid should seize the opportunity to lay out a plan now – before someone else does – of how they plan to improve the quality of life in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This will stave off the Europeans and the left flank within the Biden administration from trying to impose moves that the fragile coalition will not be able to handle.
This is something Bennett has spoken about in the past, including upgrading infrastructure, construction of joint industrial zones, new power plants, a port on the Mediterranean, and more. The Palestinians will not want to play along with this, but if Bennett and Lapid can get the Americans on their side, they will have done enough.
That is something at which Netanyahu consistently failed. One problem was that no one trusted him, but also because he always found excuses why he couldn’t deliver. Bennett and Lapid have an unprecedented opportunity to do things differently.
At the same time, they can also show Israelis that there is another way for the country to be run. They can present a type of politics that doesn’t need to include daily mudslinging and violent rhetoric. They can show how politicians can work together, even one-time adversaries.
They can take an example from the race between Isaac Herzog and Miriam Peretz this week. The two candidates for president did not attack one another nor insult one another. They competed fairly and responsibly, and after Herzog was announced the winner, they embraced publicly for the nation to see.
Israelis need more of that. They have long seen how politicians work to ensure their own political survival. Now is the time to demonstrate that there are politicians who work on behalf of all Israelis to make their lives better and safer and their nation more united.
It will be tough. But with the right sense of purpose, success is not impossible.