It was no coincidence that the IDF spokesperson's broadcast Tuesday night was delayed; it needed approval from multiple levels, all the way up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The message in the broadcast wasn't critical for us, the Israeli public, but for its intended audience: Gazans, Yahya Sinwar, and even Ismail Haniyeh.
The message conveyed was very clear, so every word spoken by the IDF spokesperson carries significant importance.
Psychological warfare: Belittling Sinwar to Hamas, Gaza, and himself
Let's start with the Gazans – the IDF spokesperson said that Sinwar was running away with his children and one of his wives, escorted by his brother.
In the video filmed on October 10 at the beginning of the war, we see how he escaped with his family.
The IDF knows the importance of the message being simple, repeatable, and emotionally stirring. Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari used several verbs such as "escaped," "fled," and "escorted." This allowed them to illustrate Sinwar's passivity, helplessness, and cowardice. The great Yahya Sinwar, the one making decisions, the great hero, flees down the tunnels in flip-flops.
The following message from the IDF is intended for both Haniyah and Sinwar together. Hagari continued his speech by saying, "In the following scans, we reached another compound where he stayed with other high-ranking officials, hiding beneath the ground while the war was happening above him."
It is known that there are numerous disagreements and power struggles between the two Hamas leaders. There is tension between Sinwar and Haniyeh, who have not spoken to each other for over a month, which makes it difficult to reach a new hostage deal.
Hagari knew what he was doing when he said, "the war was happening above him." He belittled Sinwar and his decision-making ability, and exacerbated the tensions with Haniyeh.
And indeed, trying to deepen the conflict between the two Hamas leaders is the right course of action, and the best way to do so is to press Sinwar’s buttons. It is well-known that he is frustrated that he has to hide while Haniyeh takes more and more control over what is happening in Gaza.
Currently, Hamas finds itself at a crossroads, as two dominant voices in the terrorist organization vie for control, each wanting to be the one pulling the strings. While Sinwar, the chief in Gaza, expresses readiness to accept a six-week ceasefire proposal, the political leadership sitting in Qatar pushes for greater concessions from Israel. This internal division poses a huge obstacle to the negotiation process and prevents Hamas from presenting a unified front in discussions with international mediators.
This dispute has great importance in analyzing the dynamics and predicting what will come next. It is noticeable that Haniyeh, who sits in an air-conditioned room in Qatar, does not take into account the difficulty Sinwar is dealing with, or the suffering of the residents of Gaza. From his perspective, he wants to prove to the world that he is calling the shots and thus establish his position in the organization's leadership.
Sinwar, located in the heart of Gaza, does a risk assessment and understands that he must achieve a ceasefire as quickly as possible.
In addition, there are very clear ego wars here. Sinwar does not like it at all when negotiations “go over his head.” Since he is hiding, it is harder for him to express a strong position and he understands that Haniyeh is exploiting this.
The bottom line is that despite the unbeatable image that has been created for Sinwar in Israel, he is under a lot of pressure and needs a ceasefire. Beyond the struggle for survival, he is also involved in political struggles that distract him. Israel needs to analyze the psychological state of the leaders and understand how it enters into the volatile dynamics of Hamas in order to leverage it to its advantage.
Psychological warfare has its own rules, it is aimed at the emotions of the enemy and is intended to hurt their weak spot. In Hamas, psychological warfare bypasses rational thinking. We have no way to protect ourselves from its effects. Even when we are aware of the manipulations, they still work on us. It is so efficient because it targets emotions.
Our emotions are often beyond our control, especially when it comes to a figure like Sinwar. He planned the brutal and horrifying attacks of October 7. There is no other way to understand this person without understanding the psychopathy that defines him. The cold and precise planning, the strategic deception that was planned years ago, and the attention to the details of the massacre. These all paint a picture of a cold and calculating strategist, without the ability to feel empathy, guilt, or shame. In order to plan such a ruthless and precise operation, one needs to completely disconnect from any human emotion. This detachment cannot be done by a normal person.
This is about people who are completely indifferent. Therefore, they do not feel emotions of guilt, fear, or obsession. But there is one thing that does affect them, and that is the loss of control and power. And that is exactly what the messages from Israel are meant to do.
In order to break the spirit of a psychopath, their expectations must be shattered. This will completely undermine their perception of the world.
In the current war, we are on our way to doing just that. But we have reached a critical point. If we hesitate now, it means that Sinwar has won. Right now, he is unsettled, and has realized that he did not anticipate Israel’s response correctly. Now, we are playing a game of chicken. Who will blink first? It’s better for Israel if it isn’t us.