Palestinian terror could spike in the West Bank in 2026, shifting from Gaza, if the current US second phase process forces Hamas to restrict its attacks on Israel in the near-term, IDF sources warned on Monday.
While Palestinian terrorism in the West Bank has been a significant issue, part of what contained it for the duration of much of the war was that the main warfare between Hamas and Israel was centered in Gaza.
There were certainly times when Hamas tried to use terror in the West Bank to distract Israel and split the army’s forces and ability to fully invest in fighting the terrorist group in Gaza.
But there were also many instances when Hamas neglected its West Bank terror platforms because it was either itself distracted, fighting for survival, or trying to convince Israel or the US to agree to a ceasefire on optimal terms without a West Bank terror attack rocking the boat.
However, as the second phase of the Trump administration’s post-Gaza war plans kicks off, Hamas may need to not only give away some of its weapons (US officials have discussed partial disarmament), but it may also need to limit initiating conflict with Israel from the Gaza Strip for an extended time period.
West Bank as next Hamas target to attack Israel
Absent a relatively quiet Israel-Gaza front, the Trump administration could freeze the Gaza rebuilding process, the process of having third parties other than Israel manage Gaza, or allow the IDF to reinitiate heavy operations.
IDF sources said that in such a scenario, the West Bank would be Hamas’s most natural spot to try to still lash out at Israel since this would technically not violate the ceasefire, and seeing as it might be able to obscure its link to any specific attack, or claim an attack was carried out by lower-ranked terrorists, without the higher-ups’ authorization.
Another front that concerns the IDF is terror emanating from a variety of groups that could use the relatively porous Jordan-Israel border to attack.
Jordan and Israel are at peace, and the countries frequently work together, as many other allies do, on military and diplomatic matters.
Yet, Jordan’s border security is not as strong as Israel’s. Also, IDF sources warned that it is contending not only with a Palestinian majority, some of whom support Hamas or the global Muslim Brotherhood, but also with pro-Iranian Iraqi militias and other terrorist groups who can penetrate the country and could then use it as a platform for attacking Israel, even if that was against the Jordanian government’s will.
Iran, Hezbollah, and a variety of other terrorist groups have and could try to use Jordan to escalate problems on the Jordan-Israel border.
It has even been publicized that terrorist cells in Jordan conducted seminars about building missile launchers, such that some of this information and supplies could make their way across the border into the West Bank.
There have been increasing efforts in recent years to try to build and fire missiles from the Palestinian West Bank into Israel. The IDF has beefed up its forces on the border with Jordan, adding a new division of troops.
But the new defense wall that Israel is building there is expected to take around two years, leaving heavy challenges for border security in the near and medium term.
The military hopes that more patrols and advanced technology to detect potential infiltrators will, in the meantime, thwart threats, but remains concerned.