With US President Donald Trump appointing Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and senior Qatari official Ali al-Thawadi to the US-led Gaza oversight board, Israel’s remaining leverage would hinge on Hamas’s refusal to disarm and the United States' failure to assemble a peace-enforcement force to enter Gaza to oversee demilitarization.
If that effort falters, Israel is likely to seek to carry out the disarmament itself, which would mean mobilizing four to five reserve divisions and resuming an offensive in Gaza City and additional areas.
This could occur in the spring, shortly after Passover, possibly around Israel’s 78th Independence Day and just before elections for the 26th Knesset.
Israel has long opposed a Turkish governance role in Gaza. The inclusion of Fidan, seen by Jerusalem as hostile to Israeli interests, has been flagged by Israeli officials as a red line amid broader friction with Washington over Turkey’s place in Gaza deliberations.
Qatar, a key mediator with ties to Hamas leadership, would be elevated from financier and go-between to supervising stakeholder under the plan.
Israel felt slighted due to several choices on Trump's Gaza board
Israeli officials were not consulted on the final composition and view the model as sidelining Jerusalem from pivotal decisions on Gaza’s governance.
First, the technocratic government for Gaza is not composed of Palestinian Authority figures, a direction that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir worked hard to keep off the table.
In practice, and without consulting Israel, Trump appointed a slate of professional senior figures from among Gaza’s residents, who are effectively Hamas-affiliated officials that have held public-sector roles in recent years, from running the university to managing medical institutions and various public bodies.
Second, Israel has spent years preventing Turkey from gaining a foothold in Gaza. The navy succeeded for more than a decade in stopping this, but now the Turks will be welcomed as members of the body that will administer and oversee Gaza.
Key enforcement questions remain unresolved, including which international force, if any, would police Gaza and ensure demilitarization. The move towards Phase II of Trump’s plan is occurring before Hamas commits to disarmament and while Israeli hostage Ran Gvili remains in Gaza.