Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition weakened against the backdrop of the IDF’s ongoing invasion of Gaza City and the prime minister’s "Sparta speech," according to a Maariv poll published Friday.
Following Netanyahu’s warnings of international isolation, which rattled the stock market, the coalition bloc has weakened to 49 Knesset seats, while the opposition stands at 61 seats, excluding the 10 seats held by the Arab parties.
The poll also highlighted that once again, the smaller parties hovering around the electoral threshold may decide the fate of the elections.
While Benny Gantz’s Blue and White crosses the threshold this week, the Religious Zionist Party led by Bezalel Smotrich once again falls below it.
Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot
While Naftali Bennett’s party lost three seats, the poll found that the official announcement of Gadi Eisenkot’s party name – Yashar! With Eisenkot – did not change its standing, which remains at nine seats.
The poll was conducted before Thursday’s announcement of the registration of Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists Party, which will compete in the upcoming elections. The party is composed of IDF reservists and their families, wounded veterans, bereaved families, and civilian volunteers.
The party’s founders say they will focus on principles rather than political boycotts, which they claim have prevented Zionist forces from cooperating until now and were among the factors that led to the October 7 massacre.
What happens if they unite?
Given that political mergers could determine the outcome of the elections, Maariv’s poll examined three scenarios. In the first, a merger between Bennett and Eisenkot yields 29 seats - exactly the sum of the two parties running separately. However, in this scenario, Blue and White fall below the threshold with just 2.3% support, and the Arab parties rise to 11 seats.
In practice, a Bennett-Eisenkot merger weakens the opposition bloc by two seats (due to Blue and White’s fall below the threshold) to 59, compared to 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc (a one-seat gain for Likud), and 11 seats for the Arab parties.
The second scenario, a merger between Eisenkot and Yair Lapid, produces 14 seats - two fewer than if they ran separately. Again, the Arab parties reach 11 seats, but in this case, Blue and White remains with four seats. In total, the opposition bloc stands at 60 seats, compared to 49 for Netanyahu’s coalition and 11 for the Arab parties.
The third scenario is a merger between Eisenkot and Avigdor Liberman, which yields 17 seats, two fewer than separately. The Arab parties receive 11 seats, and the overall result is the same as the previous scenario: 60 for the opposition, 49 for the coalition, and 11 for the Arab parties. Bottom line: according to this poll, the tested mergers do not add votes to the opposition bloc and fail to bring it to the majority needed to form a government.
However, the combination of Eisenkot and Bennett makes the joint list the largest party, with a strong chance of receiving the first mandate to form a government. In Israeli politics, such a starting point cannot be underestimated.
Public trust in the prime minister
The Maariv poll also shows that a majority of Israelis (52%) do not trust Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister (40% do not trust him at all). In contrast, 44% trust him, and another 4% are undecided. By political bloc, almost all coalition voters (91%) trust Netanyahu (61% trust him very much), compared to 85% of opposition voters who do not trust him (70% do not trust him at all).
When asked who they would vote for in the next elections if two new parties were to run - Bennett 2026 and Yashar!, led by Gadi Eisenkot - with all other parties unchanged, the answers were as follows:
- Likud – 25 seats
- Bennett – 20 seats
- The Democrats – 11 seats
- Yisrael Beytenu – 10 seats
- Yashar! – nine seats
- Shas – eight seats
- Otzma Yehudit – eight seats
- United Torah Judaism – eight seats
- Yesh Atid – seven seats
- Ra’am – five seats
- Hadash-Ta’al – five seats
- Blue and White – four seats
- Religious Zionism – zero seats
Netanyahu’s coalition receives 49 seats (50 in the previous poll), the opposition-Bennett-Eisenkot bloc 61 (60 previously), and the Arab parties 10 (10 previously).