Israel's war in Gaza could finish by February, Hamas insurgency to last months

Top defense officials expect a three to nine month insurgency even after the main part of the war concludes.

IDF soldiers of the Duvdevan Unit (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S OFFICE)
IDF soldiers of the Duvdevan Unit
(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S OFFICE)

The main portion of Israel’s war in Gaza could be over by mid-to late January.

Top defense officials have previously told The Jerusalem Post and some others that the end of January is a realistic end date for main operations, but some were leaking an even earlier potential end on Saturday night, with Channel 12 being the first to mention this and the IDF refusing to publicly comment.

Despite the optimism, top defense officials expect a three to nine month insurgency even after the main part of the war concludes.

The difference between the main war period and the insurgency is likely to be smaller-scale battles, more of the hit-and-run guerrilla-warfare type, and the beginning of the IDF being able to send a significant number of reservists back home.

If the military can stick to such a deadline, it could relieve some of the current reported pressure from the US and other countries regarding how the war is being fought.

An IDF strike on a mosque in Khan Yunis being used by Hamas. December 9, 2023. (Credit: IDF)

Over the weekend, there was more evidence that the IDF is steadily taking control of pieces of Khan Yunis away from Hamas, while still facing some of the toughest resistance of the war to date.

The army announced the names of another five soldiers killed over the weekend: Stf.-Sgt.-Maj. (res.) Liav Atiya, 25, from Beersheva; Stf.-Sgt.-Maj. (res.) Omri Ben Shachar, 25, from Givatayim; Sgt.-Maj. Cohen Eisenkot, 19, from Eilat; Stf.-Sgt. Jonathan Dean Jr Haim, 25, from Ramat Gan; and Stf.-Sgt. Chaim Meir Adan, 20, from Rehovot.

This pushes the number of IDF soldiers killed since the start of the invasion of Gaza in late October to 95.

If on Monday night, the IDF caught Hamas by surprise by invading Khan Yunis from multiple directions and with creative maneuvers, as the week has dragged on, the terror organization regrouped, found its footing, and “is fighting over every centimeter.”

Also, there were images Saturday night of a large-scale surrender of Hamas forces in the northern Gaza neighborhood of Jabalya, while fighting in the nearby Shejaia neighborhood remained fierce.

In parallel to unleashing a mix of massive fire power from the air, artillery, tanks and a range of infantry and commando units, the IDF is using information warfare to inject a wedge between the general Gazan population and Hamas.

The name in Arabic for this campaign refers both to “opening the gates of hell” for Hamas as well as “a new horizon” for Palestinian civilians.

That means that there are both areas where Hamas forces are surrendering as well as others where they are fighting with great intensity.

It is expected to take the IDF time to gain control of Khan Yunis due to the mix of terrain between built-up and agricultural areas and Hamas’s extensive tunnel network.

There has also been an increase in using female lookouts and female Palestinians to attack IDF forces with improvised explosives.

The IDF is hoping to get more Palestinian civilians to move to Rafah and a humanitarian zone near Khan Yunis, but Hamas continues to use them as human shields, forcing the military to use creative tactics to mitigate harm to civilians, while making military progress.

More specifically, soldiers from the 12th Battalion of the IDF’s 98th Brigade, along with the air force, raided a Khan Yunis mosque on Saturday being used by Hamas for military purposes, killing numerous terrorists.

During the fighting, an explosive device exploded near the Israeli troops, prompting the brigade’s artillery to launch rapid strikes in the area, the IDF said. Additionally, more terrorists were eliminated by a combat helicopter after they attempted to attack IDF troops on the roof of the mosque.

The helicopter also targeted terrorists emerging from a tunnel as well as others present in the vicinity.

Ultimately, the mosque, and the infrastructure beneath it, were demolished by an Israeli aircraft, the military stated.

IDF counters terror activity in Gaza

Previously, on Friday night, fighters from the Maglan Special Forces unit observed three terrorists who came out of a tunnel before firing an RPG at IDF troops.

IDF personnel responded with small-arms fire, killing the terrorists.

An Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), at the direction of ground troops, subsequently targeted and eliminated additional terrorists in the vicinity and destroyed the entrances to several tunnel shafts.

The IDF also said that soldiers of the Duvdevan unit located a Hamas military headquarters on Saturday evening. It said that the structure contained Hamas fighters who were preparing an ambush. The army subsequently initiated an attack on the building while a combat aircraft targeted a squad of terrorists nearby.

Soldiers from the Givati Brigade had also been involved in ground operations over the previous day, the IDF said.

Givati soldiers have been working to locate and expose extensive tunnel infrastructure, destroy terror facilities, and recover Hamas’s weapons and ammunition.

On Saturday morning, the brigade directed air force and combat helicopter strikes on terror infrastructure, including launching positions for anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and Hamas military hideouts.

IDF personnel responded with small-arms fire, killing the terrorists.

An Israeli UAV, at the direction of ground troops, reportedly subsequently targeted and eliminated additional terrorists in the vicinity and destroyed the entrances to several tunnel shafts.

The IDF also said that soldiers of the Duvdevan unit located a Hamas military headquarters on Saturday evening. According to the Israeli military, the structure contained Hamas fighters who were preparing an ambush. The IDF subsequently initiated an attack on the building while a combat aircraft targeted a squad of terrorists nearby.

Soldiers from the Givati Brigade have also been involved in ground operations over the previous day, the IDF said.

Givati soldiers have been working to locate and expose extensive tunnel infrastructure, destroy terror facilities, and recover Hamas’s weapons and ammunition.

On Saturday morning, the brigade directed air force and combat helicopter strikes on terror infrastructure including launching positions for anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and Hamas military hideouts.