US media are being very transparent in discussions about how America might respond to the Iranian-backed militia attack that killed three US soldiers in Jordan over the weekend. CNN reported that the US response is expected to be “powerful,” while NBC reported that the White House faced pressure to get “approval” from Congress on any retaliation. Iran’s regime is reading these articles, and wondering: What might be in store for the perpetrators?
This is a crucial moment for the Biden administration. NBC reported that “House and Senate lawmakers will receive several classified briefings about the deadly attack this week. Biden’s vow comes just days after a bipartisan group of senators sent a letter urging him to come to Congress before he undertakes any further military action.”
So far, Iran appears to be confident it has gotten away with backing the groups that murdered the three Americans. An article at Fars News, for example, repeated claims that the US was unlikely to target Iran itself, with the article using an image of US bodies returning via an airplane. The image is not from the recent killings in Jordan, as it appears to show a dozen coffins draped with US flags; it is unclear when the image was taken, but it is clear that it is a clear message from Iran.
They named the fallen soldiers yesterday: Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, Georgia.; Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, Georgia.; and Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, Georgia. The attack took place in eastern Jordan near the Syrian and Iraqi borders. An Iranian-backed militia in Iraq took credit for several drone attacks in the area, drones that may have been flown from western Iraq or Syria.
Reports indicated a kamikaze drone can avoid air defenses by following a US drone, but this is unverified. The Iranians did something similar in an attack on Erbil in April 2021, when they flew a drone through a civilian flight path to attack a secret US hangar near the airport.
Iran’s calculations are based on years in which Iran carried out attacks across the region and has never faced any retaliation. In 2019, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq without retaliation. Iran also shot down a US Global Hawk surveillance drone in 2019 with no retaliation. Iran mined six ships off the coast of the UAE and in international shipping lanes without retaliation.
Iran killed civilians in Iraq and Pakistan with no retaliation
Iran recently launched attacks on northern Iraq and Pakistan, killing civilians, with no retaliation. Iran estimates, based on a history that goes back 40 years in which it attacked other countries, and murdered people around the Middle East, that it will not face any consequences.Iran uses militias that it backs as shields. It deploys the militias in Iraq and Syria, militias that become cannon fodder. In this case, it empowered militias in Iraq to threaten US forces in Syria, and now in Jordan. Kataib Hezbollah, the key Iranian proxy in Iraq and the most sophisticated, is believed to be behind the Jordan attack.
The attack is still shrouded in mystery and more details are expected. Reports by Syrian social media activists claimed that some Iranian militias evacuated their bases in Syria. In the past, the US carried out airstrikes in Syria in response to attacks on US forces. There have been more than 160 attacks on US forces since October 7 when Hamas attacked Israel. Between January 2021 and October 7, 2023, there were around 90 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Most of the attacks were not deadly, but some Americans have been wounded; the attack on US forces in Syria was a major escalation.